It's no secret. People who have met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the past few days are saying that something in him has been broken, subdued, even snuffed out. That's he's sometimes apathetic, that's he's downshifted, or thrown up his hands, or stopped fighting, or that he's just not the same Bibi.
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Even at the end of Election Day, even when the exit polls were still showing him at an advantage, Netanyahu was disappointed.
"He was apparently expecting a much more impressive result because of the vaccination campaign," one cabinet minister said. "People don't realize the extent that was down to him, and wouldn't have happened without him. But like it often happens in politics, the public didn't appreciate the effort enough, and didn't reward him at the polls. It looks like this disappointment affected Netanyahu, as well."
Despite the chilling atmosphere, Netanyahu continues to hold sway over diplomatic matters. A second deal for vaccines with Pfizer and Moderna was reached because of intensive effort on his part. Specifically, Netanyahu had to deal with anger from company leaders, who were furious that Israel was insisting on being first in line for 2022, as well, while delaying payment.
"Here, too, the charm that no one can deny Netanyahu has solved the problem," said one official involved in what is taking place behind the scenes.
It's not clear what is the cause and what is the effect, but there is a link between the prime minister's glum mood and his political mistakes. Instead of working to form a government and putting all his effort into cracking the tough nut named Gideon Sa'ar, Netanyahu and his people are spending 24 hours a day going head to head with Naftali Bennett. But Bennett isn't the problem. He isn't what is stopping the formation of a right-wing, or any, government.
Netanyahu is also left without field captains that will handle political missions for him in the Knesset. Sa'ar and Elkin, who once did that work, are now operating against him. They are pummeling his current representative, Miki Zohar, and the results are plain to see. Advisors who want what is good for Netanyahu are telling him to be flexible, and make Yariv Levin or someone else head of the Likud and the government. At least for now, he isn't willing to entertain that option.
So his opponents are using Netanyahu's mandate to form their own government. Yair Lapid, who has improved his political performance, is gathering the Left around him. The problem is that it is very difficult if not impossible to link the Lapid bloc to the leg it needs in order to stand – Bennett.
The formation of a government like that and its survival depend on votes from the Arab parties, most of whom reject Israel's right to exist as a Jewish, democratic state. Morally, a coalition that depends on votes like these dismantles the foundations of Zionism. But practically, what kind of policies would it run?
On May 22, the Palestinians are planning their own legislative elections, the first in 15 years. The US supports the move, and is also backing Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' demand that the election include residents of east Jerusalem. But will leaders of the Israeli Right agree to what would be a de facto division of the city? On the other hand, will Labor leader Merav Michaeli and Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz give up what they see as a historic move by the Palestinians, and even do battle with the Biden administration over it?
Or take the Iran nuclear deal, currently in the process of being renewed, between Iran and the US. The Left's general, Yair Golan, has already expressed support for the agreement (despite not knowing the details of it, but we'll leave that for now). How would Bennett be able to get Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman to come together to oppose the deal? And will this gang, whose personal ambitions are well-known, be able to fall in line behind Bennett on any issue?
It's much more likely that this odd government would quickly result in the fifth election it is being formed to prevent, and that is not good news.
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