The war in Ukraine is one of the most formative experiences the international system has had in decades. There is no way to predict how and when it will end, but there is certainly room for speculating possible outcomes and discussing their implications on world order.
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The most likely outcome of the war is what American political commentator Thomas Friedman called a "dirty compromise" that would include a ceasefire, a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, and transferring of control over the separatist eastern Ukrainian regions to Russia. As part of the compromise, Ukraine will promise not to join the NATO military alliance and Western countries will lift economic sanctions imposed on the federation.
This scenario, which seems distant at the moment, is unlikely to lead to a change in the current world order. The "power struggle" that has characterized it in the last decade will continue, with US and China being main rivals.
The false early estimates of Russian success in Ukraine increase the likelihood of the "Ukrainian mud" scenario, a modern-day version of the Soviet-Afghan War, in which the USSR was defeated.
According to this scenario, Russia will be forced to continue fighting against Ukrainian guerilla forces for several years with occupying forces that will suffer ongoing losses; sanctions on Russia will remain in place; the Russian economy will deteriorate, but the federation will continue to function and President Vladimir Putin will stay in power.
Russia sinking in Ukrainian mud could lead to the "Victory of the West" world order, in which the Western-liberal-democratic order returns to the center of the world stage, led by the US.
It is more likely, however, to lead to a "Second Cold War" scenario characterized by increased rivalry by the proponents and opponents of such an order. This could lead to an arms race and perhaps even to a dynamic of escalation into a broader war in Europe within a few years.
This scenario could also come about if Russia succeeds in replacing the Zelenskyy government with puppet leadership. In this scenario, which is becoming less and less likely, Russia occupies Ukraine for a long period of time and manages to control the country, or parts of it, without significant losses, while simultaneously dealing with continued international sanctions.
Another less plausible scenario is "Revolution 2022," in which the Russian people take to the streets in a coalition with oligarchs and senior members of the defense establishment to rally against and oust Putin. The direction of this scenario will be determined by whoever takes over as president, but it will most likely lead to an end of the war, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, and the lifting of sanctions.
The worst scenario is, of course, "World War III". Given that no side is interested in sparking such a conflict, the probability of this is low. As for a nuclear confrontation, Putin's implicit threat comes as no surprise, since according to Russian strategic thinking, nuclear deterrence is combined with military and consciousness efforts. However, a nuclear option will probably be saved for a particularly extreme case, which at the moment seems very far-fetched.
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Yet another scenario is a "New World Order" led by China, which could happen if the West emerges from the war wounded and exhausted, or Beijing will be the one to resolve the crisis. For this to happen, China needs to change its policies, for until now it has avoided accepting the responsibility that comes with being a superpower.
Last but not least, in the context of a creative discussion about outcomes, we should examine the significance of world order in which the most powerful players are the ones that possess the most advanced technology. Such a scenario can materialize whether the players are the ones who help end the war or – in the event of a "World War III" outcome – defeat all previous superpowers.
