The odds of a Netanyahu-led right-wing government being formed are approximately slim to none, as focus within the political system over the past 24 hours has shifted to the president's next choice to try forming a coalition.
One player facing a particularly tough dilemma is Gideon Sa'ar. The main battle for the president's mandate is between Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett. Lapid is determined to have the mandate because he fears that Bennett, if he receives it instead, could "dodge" toward a right-wing government with the Likud. Bennett wants the mandate because he wants control if he tries forming a right-wing government, as he has repeatedly promised his constituency. Sa'ar, meanwhile, is stuck in the middle, staring down the barrel of a messy quandary.
If the right-wing bloc including the Likud, the Haredi factions, and the Religious Zionist party supports the mandate going to Bennett, he will have 59 recommendations. Lapid, on the other hand, has 45 recommendations. The belief within Likud is that in this scenario the president will struggle to legitimize transferring the mandate to Lapid; and even if he doesn't, as reported by Israel Hayom on Tuesday, he still won't give it to Bennett. Rather, he will opt to return the mandate to the Knesset, at which point the path to a fifth election would be a practical certainty.
Sa'ar can help Lapid. He can change his position from a month ago, recommend Lapid and bring him closer to 59 mandates against 51 for the other side. This would give the president more legitimacy to hand Lapid the mandate. However, by recommending Lapid, Sa'ar would be breaking an explicit campaign promise.
But, if Sa'ar doesn't recommend anyone and leaves Lapid with just 45 mandates, the president might feel that Lapid cannot form a government and return the mandate to the Knesset. And Sa'ar knows his New Hope party will probably be wiped off the political map in another election.
His last option is to recommend Bennett. The Yamina leader would have over 61 recommendations and the president would have no choice but to task him with forming the next government. Sa'ar, however, much like Lapid, doesn't want Bennett to form a government with Netanyahu.
The prime minister's deadline expired at midnight on Tuesday and now the president has three days to decide. And the political storm? Even after the president announces his decision, it isn't likely to subside.
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