Unlike the Singapore summit on June 12, 2018, between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, which created global drama and expectations of an immediate apocalypse by the very fact that it took place at all, the Hanoi summit – which launched on Wednesday – was characterized by less passionate and more sober rhetoric from both sides. Indeed, the excitement at the obstacle of hostility between Washington and Pyongyang (which a year ago were on the brink of military conflict) has been replaced by greater caution about the limits of what is possible.
This is mainly due to the fact that nearly nine months after the Singapore summit, it's hard to single out any significant progress on the core issue of North Korea divesting itself of nuclear weapons. Trump – at least on the eve of the meeting – dropped his original demand for the short-term demilitarization of North Korea and has instead adopted Henry Kissinger's gradual approach.
So a new American diplomacy has emerged, one that is mostly anchored in things happening in stages with emphasis on a modular process of building mutual trust and taking slow steps toward an agreement.
Despite the fact that the dream of nuclear disarmament seems very far from fulfillment, we cannot ignore the fact that since the Singapore meeting, North Korea hasn't renewed its dangerous missile dance and that conciliatory dialogue has replaced the threats and sword-polishing. So the first day of the Hanoi summit took place in a warm, friendly atmosphere that created cautious optimism about its results.
Not only has the risk of escalation subsided, in the meantime the American capital has come to acknowledge that the dispute with North Korea can be broken down into its various elements and that it is possible to move toward real reconciliation even without an inclusive early deal that includes all the issues, including the nuclear question. For example, we cannot rule out the possibility of a declaration of an end to the state of war between the U.S. and North Korea as part of an interim agreement that will include a road map and touch on (if not solve) major points of the dispute, such as the future of U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea and continued or reduced American military presence in South Korea and Japan.
Nor can we ignore that with special prosecutor Robert Mueller's probe coming to an end, Congress' refusal to fund a wall on the border with Mexico and the testimony on Wednesday of Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen, it is the American president who really needs immediate achievements or at least the appearance of success in Hanoi. This will come by an effort to sell the American people on an image of daring, effective leadership that continues to take the lead toward stability and economic growth in the international arena. Very soon, we will learn whether this aspiration will ensure the success of the summit, while also improving Trump's status at home.
