1.
The gap between assessments that the Iranian regime was nearing collapse and its continued survival so far has understandably caused public disappointment. Even so, sooner or later, the collapse will come. The downfall of totalitarian regimes or regional powers is usually not a single event, but a process of internal erosion leading to a breaking point. At times, that point separates endurance from collapse by only hours or days. Until then, patience is required, and pressure must continue. The hourglass marking the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran has begun to run.
The current war has destroyed not only military capabilities, regime institutions and industrial infrastructure; it has also destroyed the myth of immunity that the blood-soaked regime spread over recent decades. The attacks on its most heavily guarded facilities and the elimination of the front ranks of its military and political leadership, without any response, have caused it to lose deterrence both abroad and at home. The current economic damage, estimated by economists at around $200 billion so far, on top of the damage of previous years, has accelerated inflation to levels that have strangled the middle class and left only the elite with any resources at all, some of which have been smuggled out of the country.
2.
Reports flowing from opposition channels and international aid organizations paint a picture of systemic paralysis. In some cities, there are no functioning ambulances capable of responding to emergency calls, to the point that bodies are being left by the roadside. This signals to citizens that the regime has given up on managing the public sphere, except when it comes to repression.
The state of emergency has created a severe energy shortage. Fuel is being diverted first to military needs and vehicles used for repression, and only afterward to rescue services. Another reason for civilian suffering is the collapse of navigation and reporting systems. In hospitals in major cities, the few remaining medical resources are being reserved for regime personnel and war casualties. Iran researcher Tamar Eilam Gindin reported a prisoner uprising at Chabahar Prison after inmates had gone without food for several days. These are indicators of a failed state. Of course, the regime's own citizens are part of this equation, because the speed of its collapse depends on them. The question is whether they are prepared to pay the heavy price of freedom, and act.
3.
British historian Arnold Toynbee showed in his studies of the disintegration of civilizations that they do not die from external causes, by "murder," but by "suicide." Collapse begins when the creative minority, the leadership that began with broad legitimacy, turns into a ruling minority that governs by force alone. Bayonets need soldiers who believe in the system, or fear it more than they fear hunger and the people. Toynbee described a process of withdrawal and renewal: the regime takes a blow and recovers, then takes another blow and recovers again, and each time grows weaker, until the social structure loses its elasticity and breaks apart with a great crash.
That crash usually comes after an unexpected event: a succession crisis within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, perhaps; a military revolt by units that refuse to fire on their own people, or even protect them from Afghan and Iraqi mercenaries; or a humiliating agreement perceived as total surrender. Incidentally, the very fact that Iranian representatives sat down with Vice President Vance is viewed by the regime's hard core as betrayal, especially when its members believed the false propaganda they themselves spread among the public, claiming they were already "on the road to victory" over the US. It is possible that this deadly criticism from the Revolutionary Guards and their supporters was at the root of the failure of the first round of talks.
4.
In his book Collapse, Jared Diamond described the dynamics behind the downfall of societies that appear strong on the outside. A society's collapse can come a decade or two after it has reached the height of its power. He warned against the illusion of strength. In that sense, Iran reached the height of its power and deterrence in the region until about two years ago. Today it is clear that this happened because it had drawn down and exhausted its military and economic reserves, especially the terrorist organizations under its patronage.
Despite Iranian propaganda claiming that it is winning, and perhaps precisely because of it, it seems we are at a decisive historical moment. This is a dictatorship living on borrowed time. We are an ancient people. In our history, we have already seen nations rise against us and then disappear into the mists of history. Patience.
