The lethal terrorist attack in Beersheba on Tuesday threatens to shake up the Palestinian arena at a particularly sensitive time – going into Ramadan, when Hamas is already stepping up its efforts to escalate tensions in Jerusalem, Judea, and Samaria.
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The fact that an Israeli citizens, a Bedouin resident of the Negev, perpetrated the attack, just fans the flames of these efforts. Although it was an attack by a lone actor, who apparently executed it without any coordination with other people, it is likely he will now be viewed as a hero by many. They certainly won't let the fact that he did not identify with the Palestinian cause, but with that of the Islamic State – and whose activity in support of ISIS landed him in prison a few years ago – bother them.
Past experience has taught us that terrorist organizations will now try to encourage copycat attacks. As always, most of the activity will take place on social media, which gives the young people most of their inspiration. The goal now facing the Shin Bet security agency will be to track pro-terror activity and locate anyone who might carry out an attack because of it. This is an effort that has been under way for years, since the stabbing intifada that followed Operation Protective Edge in 2014, and it manage to thwart most of the planned attacks, but like the terrorist attack on Tuesday (and others in the past few days) have proven, there is no way of preventing 100% of them.
The reason for that lies in the difference between an infrastructure of terrorism and a lone terrorist. A network can create much more deadly attacks, but will be much more exposed due to the number of participants. A lone terrorist, however, is a hard target to catch if he doesn't leave tracks (physical or technological), but the harm he can do is limited in scope.
From that perspective, the Beersheba attack was unusual, with a lone terrorist managing to kill four civilians before he was shot. Security forces operating in Jerusalem are frequently criticized for being quick to shoot in similar circumstances, but the clear lesson from Tuesday is that taking down the attacker, even if it means shooting them, saves lives.
We can assume that following the attack, and the assessment that there will be copycat attempts, we'll now see increased alert and possibly even increased forces in east Jerusalem – a regular target for terrorist attacks – and possibly other flash points in the West Bank and along the seam line. The main challenge for security forces will be to reduce friction and the number of wounded as much as possible to avoid an unwanted escalation.
That was also Israel's preliminary goal as Ramadan, Passover, and Easter approach – to allow people's normal daily routines to go on with as little interference as possible while trying to put out fires. Last year, these attempts failed and Israel slid into Operation Guardian of the Walls in the Gaza Strip. This year, it appeared that despite all the elements trying to foment unrest, the factors holding everything in check (the economic situation, the influence of moderate Arab states, and the Palestinian public's general weariness of clashes) would prevail.
But Tuesday's attack threatens to upend everything. The political and security apparatuses must exert greater effort to get things back on track so next month won't be bloodier and more violent than it usually is.
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