Although the 2020 presidential election is still nine months away, it's safe to say that the Democratic Party has had its worst week so far in this race.
If it doesn't correct course, its troubles might snowball and destroy its electoral prospects. This slippery slope could result in the Democratic Party once again looking at the White House from the outside in.
First, there is the political-legal impact of this past week: The party's hopes of making the president's impeachment trial front and center and to have it dominate the news for as long as possible, preferably until Election Day, failed as soon as they lost their bid to summon witnesses to testify in the Senate and supposedly implicate the president in Ukraine-gate.
Thus, once this effort failed, the hopes were dashed for good and the trial ended with a whimper: a full acquittal.
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On top of that, the first round of voting in the party's presidential nomination contest could not have gone worse. The endless glitches caused by the vote-counting app show a sloppiness of unimaginable proportions (as of Thursday officials were still tabulating the caucuses' results).
The party's ineptitude could project weakness nationwide and raise questions as to whether it is, in fact, ready to assume power in Washington.
Another sign of concern for Democrats is the actual outcome of the Iowa caucuses: Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has been leading Trump in national polls for more than a year and was at one point a favorite for the nomination, ended up losing big time. His fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses was an embarrassing debacle for the former shoo-in candidate.
Iowa, despite being small, has become a bellwether of sorts, as it is the first real test for candidates. The small things that get decided in Iowa have a large impact across the nation, and in that sense, Biden's collapse could be of major consequence and may spell the beginning of the end for his campaign.
He now enters the New Hampshire primary as a wounded candidate and far behind Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the polls.
The cardinal rule in primary races is that if you fail to win in Iowa or New Hampshire, you have no chance of getting the party's nomination. Bill Clinton is the only outlier in that statistic (in part because the Iowa contest in 1992 was not competitive due to the home advantage of then-Senator Tom Harkin).
If Biden ends up being beaten badly in New Hampshire, it will have a major and immediate impact on his campaign. The two states are far from being representative of the US electorate, but losing them both will create a ripple effect that could end his chances of picking up momentum. These losses could cast him as a failure and deplete his financial resources, and may very well end his presidential bid.
Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg has emerged victorious and has effectively stolen Biden's ticket as the moderate and pragmatic candidate. We have to remember that even though he is charismatic and young, he lacks a real track record that would indicate how he would govern as president.
Thus, we have to be prepared that a dark horse might emerge – someone who did not compete in Iowa and won't try to win in New Hampshire either. That someone, who will try to defy the cardinal rule that makes it impossible to win without one of the two, is former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who wants to use his organizational and financial prowess to keep him alive through the South Caroline primaries on February 22, and then on to Super Tuesday, where he hopes to get momentum that would make him unstoppable.
Like Biden and Buttigieg, Bloomberg represents the mainstream of the Democratic Party, and this splitting of votes could serve Trump if those three fight amongst themselves and pave the way for Sanders to clinch the nomination (Sanders has his own infighting with Senator Elizabeth Warren over the liberal vote).
The potential rise of Sanders as the face of the Democratic Party, as a socialist candidate who is clearly out of step with the vast majority of the electorate, is good news for the president.
Thus, on the eve of the crucial New Hampshire primaries, Biden may be looking at his demise while the current occupant in the White House has every reason to feel optimistic and can afford to bask in the limelight generated by his successful State of the Union Address and watch with delight as the Democrats continue to fight and his poll numbers continue to climb.
