The Russian invasion of Ukraine is rapidly rearranging the international map. The West has come together to impose crippling sanctions on Vladimir Putin and his country, far more severe than the Russian president and even the West itself could have imagined. A new arms race has also begun in Europe, with Germany's massive investment in its military for the first time since World War II.
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However, while the United States and Europe have joined hands, Asia is dragging its feet. China does not necessarily agree with the US and its allies. But even India, the most populous democracy in the world, is far from aligning itself with the West. Major Middle Eastern countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, too have adopted such an approach.
Washington must ask itself why these powers have chosen not to stand by it at this time. The obvious answer in the Middle East – Iran – seems to be unable to cross the oceans and reach the US. At least that is the impression given reports by American media outlets and statements by its leaders.
For the US, Iran is a small matter. Therefore, as far as President Joe Biden is concerned, he probably thinks he can give up this front and mainly focus on Russia and China. But for Asia, and especially for the Middle East that Washington needs now, Iran is the main issue.
Everything revolves around it. Americans – even some Republicans – are disappointed with the stance Israel and its neighbors have taken with regard to Russia. Do they not understand that the region fears Iran the most, and that the US accepts such aggression?
The residents of Dubai, Jeddah, Tel Aviv, and Erbil do not understand why the Russian invasion justifies a severe punishment by the US and its allies, while the no-less-violent attacks by Iran – committed against them – are met with gestures, overtures, and appeasement.
Iran has been biting into its neighbor's territories for no fewer years and no less violently than Russia. Iran infiltrated and destroyed both Yemen and Lebanon. It intervenes and operates militarily in Iraq and Syria, and launches rockets into Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, and even targets US assets in the Gulf. And, of course, Iran is preparing to wage a war against Israel, from Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and Yemen all at the same time.
Does America think that Iranian attacks are less painful than Russian ones? Why, then, does the response include half a billion dollars by Britain and astonishing series of gestures by the US, including the removal of the Houthi rebels and the Revolutionary Guards from its foreign terrorist organization blacklist, the terrible nuclear deal that will accelerate Tehran on its path to a nuclear bomb, and the release of hundreds of billions of dollars for the Islamist republic that will be used to fund its killing machine? Or in short, why is Iran being rewarded for its aggression while Russia is being punished?
Partnering with Russia and China
This inconceivable gap in the US approach is what is causing the countries of the Middle East to keep their distance. They are not sure they can trust Washington. And this is the case not just in the Mideast.
Indian economist and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mihir Sharma put it well when he said that from his country's perspective, US talk of sanctions can appear "hypocritical."
"The US spent most of the last decade trying to convince India not to buy Iranian oil, only to try to get Iranian shipments back on the market as soon as the focus shifted to Russia," he said.
These ponderings are not just moral. They are also strategic. A new world is developing rapidly, and Washington is not reading the map. Biden is being petty with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman over the Hashukaji murder but appeases Iran who in 2011 tried to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington.
Does this approach make any sense? In order to keep the Gulf States on its side, the US must quickly update its foreign policy, with the first step being the distancing of Iran. This is the Archimedean point.
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Only a tough front vis-à-vis the ayatollah regime will convey to Bin Salman and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan that America wants them by its side. If Biden does so, Gulf leaders will answer his phone calls and agree to increase oil production, which will reduce damage to the American economy, make it easier for the White House to isolate Russia and China, and stabilize the strong Western bloc.
Alternatively, if Biden continues to boycott the Saudi crown prince, he will see him partner with Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping. And if he continues to hold back from the Iranian attacks on Emirati energy facilities, Zayed will host not only Syrian President Bashar Assad in his palace but even Putin himself. Is that what the US wants?
Playing the game of interests
During the Cold War, both Republican and Democrat presidents were skilled at the game of interests. The regimes of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE were no less dictatorial back then and yet the US knew how to deal with them.
Given the new international order and its massive implications on world economy and power relations, the Biden administration must play this game well. Ties with Asian countries, including the Mideast dictatorships, is essential for the survival and development of the free world.
Clearly, this is a contradiction, because a dictatorship is not a free state. But if the US continues to dig this hole, those countries will eventually shift to China and Russia, and at the very least will not be on America's side, as they are now. As such, Washington has no choice but to change its policy and brings those who want to be by its side closer, even if imperfect. As we know, politics is the choice between alternatives, and sometimes, those alternatives can be cruel.
