When former US President Donald Trump was in office, there were a lot of headlines about his demand for NATO member states to fulfill their commitments and allocate the money needed for shared security and defense needs. Trump's demand fell on deaf ears. Rather than seeing the threats, the elites mocked him. "Military force is so passé," they said, directly or indirectly.
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The problem of lack of funding for military capabilities to stop threats was only a symptom. An entire generation of leading thinkers and politicians in the west fell in love with the idea that it is possible to get along with various aggressors and tyrants, if we only listen to them, understand where they're coming from, and give them what they want, at least in part. "Dialogue solves everything," they said, either directly or indirectly.
The West's ineffectuality did not go unnoticed by Vladimir Putin, and he decided to take advantage of the window of opportunity. Many are wondering why the Russians are escalating their aggression now, after years of relative quiet in the area split between pro-Russian separatists and the centrist Ukrainian government, now that it has become clear that that the Ukrainians either cannot or do not intend to quash the separatist revolt by force. The answer is simple: Putin has assessed that at this time, there is no one to stop him.
These past few months, in which the Russians have stepped up their war talk and also deployed forced to the Ukraine border, only proved how right he was. Putin didn't shoot from the hip. He made threats and carefully evaluated the western response. If he had identified any western ability and willingness to make a significant counter-threat, he might have stopped. Instead, we watched a train of western politicians who believe that "dialogue solves everything" fly to Moscow to talk to Putin. Their visits yielded nothing of importance, other than allowing us a glimpse at the new Kremlin furniture.
The president of Russia now knows that the camp of democratic nations under the leadership of US President Joe Biden cannot deter him, and is getting ready to implement his threats. He was shrewd in executing his newest act of aggression: he created the impression that he was about to stage a full-scale invasion, but instead bit off "only" the separatist regions of Ukraine.
But we must not think that the Russian president will be satisfied with what he already has. Now he will reevaluate the field, and try to determine if western nations can wave a stick or still believe, like misguided sheep, in the power of dialogue. He might even wait a while, to signal that diplomacy should be given a chance, or that he might be pacified. If and when he concludes that nothing major stands in his way, he will go on, and who knows where he will stop.
The groundwork for the Russians' next step has already been laid. They have announced that their recognition of the independence of the separatist regions applies to all of Donesk and Luhansk, not only to the area that the separatists control in practice. This means that Russia is demanding that Ukraine concede double the territory that the separatists have already taken. If Ukraine does not comply, we can expect another belligerent speech by Putin, followed by further escalation.
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