A lockdown is not a strategy for handling the COVID crisis, it is a doomsday weapon and a demonstration that policies of denial have failed. It is also the result of the public's low willingness to follow the regulations enacted by the authorities. And now – fact – we are in the midst of an accelerating outbreak. Each infected person is infecting 1.25 others; the number of COVID tests that come back positive is constantly increasing, reaching 5% or more per day; and the absolute number of new cases – nearly 6,000 per day – is rising accordingly.
The most important and concerning test is the number of COVID patients hospitalized in serious condition, and we also have to count the deaths. Looking at facts like these, we need to learn our lessons and reach conclusions about how we wound up here after a second lockdown, and why we still don't feel the third one. It has already been announced, and business owners and the business sector and paying the price.
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Is this situation the result of faulty outreach efforts that failed to enlist the public, or the public's own inappropriate behavior? Or was it the decision not to operate according to the Health Ministry stoplight plan that would have instated different levels of restriction based on local authorities' COVID numbers, or the poor handling of "red" cities and communities? Or was it the decision to open the skies and allow travel abroad, with Israelis landing in the country without being tested or quarantining; or mostly "small" gatherings – weddings, celebrations, and events such as funerals? Were we sufficiently careful about following the restrictions of what is being called the third lockdown (which doesn't really exist)? All of these factors, and others, almost certainly contributed to the outbreak of COVID we are now seeing. The "British variant," which appears to be much more contagious and has led to the growing numbers of confirmed carriers and symptomatic patients, also plays a part.
Alongside these disturbing issues, Israel's vaccination campaign is a light at the end of the tunnel, and the big question is how we can connect these amazing steps toward national vaccination to the serious situation we find ourselves in. What we need now is national policy that will quickly cut back on the number of people being infected and the number of confirmed cases, in addition to vaccinating most of the country's elderly population. This will allow us to open up the economy and put our society's life back on track.
The current discussion about whether or not to shut down the schools is legitimate, and the decision is a difficult one. I was a vigorous opponent of closing schools because of the irreparable damage it could cause to generations of students. Given the sad fact that in a "sort-of lockdown" we are not able to reduce the COVID numbers, closing schools appears to be the right thing to do. True, we are sacrificing our children's education, because when schools are closed, parents will have to stay home, which will tighten the lockdown.
This is the heavy price that, regretfully, society is paying for a lack of any other insights or plans; the public's fractured faith in the government; and its lack of discipline. Indeed, it is a kind of collective punishment that applies to certain sectors and communities that have remained "green." But even the most enlightened European countries have shut down schools these past two weeks as the waves of the pandemic wash over them.
This is a marathon, not a sprint, and over the course of a year we've gotten tired. It would be best if we didn't collapse in the final stages, and made an effort to uphold two weeks of a tight lockdown. When the vaccine starts to take effect, we'll see a drop in the numbers and will be able to get back to normal life. Until then, we must not forget the basic rules of wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, hygiene, and avoiding gatherings large and small. The more we adhere to the restrictions, the shorter the "third lockdown" will last. Of course, we will have to compensate all the workers whose livelihood was affected by it.
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