Many strategies have been proposed to counter the threat posed by Iran's proxies and its terrorist arms in the Middle East. One of them is intensive military attacks. Another is to target the leaders of these arms and their top and middle management. What is the best scenario to neutralize these threats?
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If we examine the case of these militias in recent years, we undoubtedly come to several conclusions. The first is that these terrorist militias do not have the same level of experience, organization, armament, and therefore operational capabilities and combat efficiency. They can be divided into different categories. The most important of these is the Hezbollah militia. It is the oldest, best-known, and most dangerous Iranian arm. It has military capabilities that surpass those of the other terrorist arms in the region.
The second conclusion is that the Iranian militias operating under the umbrella of the so-called Axis of Resistance have neither the same regional influence nor the same importance for Iran. Perhaps the least important is the terrorist Hamas movement, which Tehran uses as part of its geostrategic conflict with the US and Israel.
The two parties have a common basis of interest but differ ideologically. Therefore, Iran's interest in the fate of the terrorist Hamas movement is the least compared to the other arms.
On the other hand, Iran is trying as much as possible to prevent the terrorist Hamas from being removed from the equation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This is because Hamas is the key guarantor of Iran's role or influence in the Palestinian issue.
On the fundamental question of the effectiveness of strikes or assassination policy, it must be said that military strikes remain limited in their effect on Iran's terrorist arms. This is the case as long as the infrastructure and military capabilities of these proxies remain unaffected by the attack. It can be said that the destruction of Gaza will not have much effect on the terrorist Hamas compared to reaching their headquarters, infrastructure, and tunnel network - the strongest deterrent for them.
Hezbollah had previously caused the destruction of Lebanon. It has claimed a divine and strategic victory for the mere survival of its leadership, despite all the human and material losses that have resulted.
For the organizations supported by Iran, assassination policy remains the most influential, effective, and powerful deterrent. These terrorist organizations are largely led by a one-man leadership. This is not necessarily one person, but a small group of individuals and leaders.
They have the authority to make decisions for the terrorist militia, especially as there is usually fierce conflict between the main figures to reach the seat of leadership. Targeting the pyramid of power at the political and military level is therefore a strong brake on their existence. This can severely hamper their operational capabilities, as in the case of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, whose capabilities were severely hampered by the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. Such units are formed in a framework that revolves around the personality and charisma of the headman, who is usually surrounded by a group of followers and yes-men to ensure that none of them can compete in leadership or win the support of Iran's Supreme Leader.
The assassination policy also includes a deterrence factor that has very serious consequences not only for the proxies but also for Iran itself. It reflects the adversary's intelligence and technical capabilities and epitomizes its ability to penetrate the tight security systems and target senior figures within the Iranian regime itself or its proxies. This leads to fears that cannot be overlooked regarding the next target and the possibility of targeting senior figures within Iran or its proxies. This could lead to the collapse of these organizations that rely heavily on propaganda and public relations. They claim to be on par with regional and international powers, which they keep labeling as tyrants, arrogant, and other slogans. The constant killings of prominent leaders of terror militias also force these entities to react and then receive the counter-attack, as it is difficult for them to repeat phrases like "we reserve the right to respond in due time and place." In doing so, they risk losing credibility in the eyes of their sectarian supporters - but also their sympathizers. In time, their supporters will realize the falsity of these terrorist organizations' claims and their inability to engage in real military confrontations.
There is no doubt that the counterstrike is sometimes, as now, the most dangerous scenario for Iran and its proxies. They are aware that the probability of receiving a strong joint American-Israeli strike is high. Perhaps some NATO parties, increasingly annoyed by the practices of Iran and its proxies in the Middle East region, will also join in. This is the scenario that could undermine Iranian influence in the region, perhaps even to the point of affecting the fate of the regime itself. That is why, despite all the slogans and threats of the leaders of the Iranian regime, it is certain that none of them seek an open conflict with Israel or the US.
What Hezbollah is doing to provoke Israel is undoubtedly not supporting the terrorist Hamas. Rather, it is trying to win Arab and Islamic sympathy for itself as a movement in defense of the Palestinian people and the Islamic sanctuaries. But one of the aims of Nasrallah and his comrades is by no means to step out of the role they have staked out and to widen the circle of the conflict in such a way as to open up the possibility of an end to Hezbollah.
Iran is well aware that Israel is experiencing an extraordinary moment in its history and that it is prepared to repeat the Gaza scenario in southern Lebanon. It is in no way prepared to risk all its proxy arms without achieving the strategic advantages it has been seeking for decades. Therefore, the current assassination policy has a long-term effect that can be relied upon in the first place.
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