The upcoming election season will take place in the shadow of an obvious paradox. On the one hand, the nationalist camp's positions on fundamental aspects of Israeli society will result in a resounding victory (not to mention all the politicians and party's moving away from the Left). On the other hand, many of the right-wing parties are small and could miss the Knesset threshold. Even the main ruling party – which essentially represents this ideological victory – will consider just 30 mandates as a success.
The explanation for this lies in the not-so-incidental fact that former Likud members, who had left the party unwillingly, now lead most of these tiny right-wing parties. Naftali Bennett, Ayelet Shaked, Moshe Kahlon, Avigdor Lieberman and Moshe Ya'alon reached the conclusion that they were no longer wanted in the party and independently left it in the hopes of surmounting the voter threshold. These aren't isolated cases anymore, rather a clear phenomenon that indicates a trend. These people and their ilk haven't changed their positions, as they and their parties most assuredly still fall inside the boundaries of the Likud's diplomatic-economic-cultural platform. Their departures have had one cause: They realized their path was blocked. It had nothing to do with political or behavioral objections, rather the party's leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, was determined to stand in their way.
Thus, for example, when Kahlon sought the finance portfolio or Lieberman the foreign affairs portfolio, they learned their popularity within the Likud and the public was meaningless because Netanyahu would never give them such portfolios while they were still members of the party. They realized that the only way to advance was to establish separate parties essentially based on the Likud platform and voter base – which ultimately led them to the portfolios they desired.
Although the cases of Bennett, Shaked and Ya'alon are somewhat different, the pattern is the same. In the Likud the path to the top was blocked, hence they resigned and tried moving ahead externally. Ministers who stayed in the Likud never faired any better in this regard, due to Netanyahu's unmistakable distaste for appointing Likud members to senior posts in his government. When the current government was formed, none of the senior portfolios (foreign affairs, finance, interior, education), aside from defense, were given to Likud ministers. Is there no one in the Likud capable of serving in a senior position?
This state of affairs can exist mainly because Likud members are traditionally very loyal to the party chairman. The public, however, has reservations about this approach. Thus these former Likud members receive a large chunk of the votes while the ruling party can never come close to realizing its true electoral potential.
In the last elections, the Likud won 30 mandates; its satellite parties collected 27 – almost the same number. Even if we remove a few mandates from these satellite parties, which regardless won't match the Likud, it's evident that the Likud's potential voter reserve far exceeds its current electoral strength – which we can estimate at around 50 mandates or more.
None of this indicates a one-time thing; the trend appears to be growing stronger. Even voters from established sectoral parties, such as Shas and the National Religious Party (now part of Habayit Hayehudi), could cast their ballots today for the Likud. This is certainly true as it pertains to the centrists (which carefully avoid identifying with the Left), such as Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz and Orly Levy-Abekasis, many of whose supporters are former Likud voters.
Hence we are now witnessing the absurd spectacle of the nationalist camp splintering itself in a futile and pointless ideological spat. Yes, responsibility for this situation falls on the leaders of these satellite parties, who at the very least could have joined together to form a more significant bloc and in turn perhaps pressure the Likud into accepting a broad unification within the camp. But we must also say honestly that the brunt of the responsibility lies at the doorstep of the party leader, who has worked to push people away rather than bring them toward building a large nationalist camp.
