The string of events over the past month has changed the face of the Middle East. What's behind all this? First, America's strength in the region has weakened in the eyes of leaders in the region. The longstanding backing that Washington has given the Sunni axis (Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan) has eroded. The hands-off policy that began during the days of President Barack Obama continued into the Trump presidency. The current White House occupant has also adopted a minimalist posture that is reluctant of any military or political engagement, as is clearly demonstrated in the Ukrainian crisis.
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Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for example, have treated the US government with suspicion and have refused to deal with it over the coordination of oil output. Their suspicion increased even further after Washington asked to discuss Iran. One implication of the US disengagement is the search for a new global protector. That is why we have seen the rapprochement between the Gulf states and Russia, especially on economic issues.
The other change is the boosted regional standing Israel has enjoyed as of late. The summit in the Negev between Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and four of his counterparts from the Arab world is the culmination of the peace process that began in 2020 with the Abraham Accords. The summit underscores the degree to which the Gulf states have acknowledged the benefits of these agreements, especially in that Israel is seen as a bridge to the US, offers advanced technology, and allows for collaboration on a host of issues. With every day that goes by, Israel is seen as less of a foreign entity, and their desire to bolster ties only increases.
Another change can also be noticed: A thawing of relations between Israel and Turkey. Of course, let's not fool ourselves into believing the Turkish president has become a stalwart of Zionism, but it appears that he does indeed want to secure his country's interests and ensure that Jerusalem's regional partnership doesn't come at his expense.
There is another change that has already begun. About a decade ago the region was divided between the "good" and the "bad" actors, but today these terms are no longer valid. In this era of regional turbulence, everyone wants stability, calm, and prosperity. This is one of the reasons the Negev Summit was held and why the United Arab Emirates is trying to become a major regional player, including through mediation efforts in various conflicts. This is also why President Bashar Assad visited the UAE this month. The UAE understands that Assad is here to stay and they want to find a way to exert leverage on him through the Syrian economy. Two days after Assad's visit to the UAE, the crown prince met with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Egypt. Although we don't know much about what unfolded in their meeting, it won't be surprising to find out that the UAE is trying to position itself as a mediator between Damascus and Jerusalem. What's changed? A lot. And more will change down the road.
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