In April, Israel braced itself for an Iranian drone attack. This week, the country once again found itself on edge, anticipating another assault from Tehran (which, at the time of writing, had not yet occurred). Airlines canceled flights, TV pundits offered predictions, and White House officials continued to issue warnings. Meanwhile, life in Israel carried on as usual. The same happened in April; immediately after the attack, life here returned to its normal course. Israel managed to repel the Iranian weapons with unprecedented success, using its air force, advanced defense systems, and a regional and international coalition. All of these factors blunted the impact of Iran's first-ever direct attack on Israel from its own territory.
Advanced defensive capabilities like those Israel displayed on the night of April 14 have many advantages, but also quite a few drawbacks. The potential damage from an attack like the one seen here could be enormous – to lives, property, infrastructure, and of course, the Israeli economy. If an impending attack causes airlines to suspend flights indefinitely, imagine what a successful attack would do to foreign investments, regular economic activity, businesses, and workers.
However, the addiction to defense technologies and advanced interception systems is part of what has brought us to this point. For many years, rockets were systematically fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory – mainly toward communities bordering Gaza, but occasionally also toward central Israel and beyond. The only reason Israel managed to contain these attacks for so long is that defense systems, especially the Iron Dome, succeeded in preventing most of the damage these attacks were intended to inflict. The advanced defense systems created a false sense of calm and prevented a sense of urgency in addressing the root of the problem. In the end, this calm proved to be an illusion.
No matter how successful, these defense systems do not change the strategic balance but preserve it until the other side manages to penetrate them as well.
It's important to dwell for a moment on the dangerous precedent of normalizing an Iranian attack. We survived one almost unscathed, and now we sit patiently waiting for another. The world around us has changed, without us paying enough attention. Iran has transformed from a vague and distant threat operating in the shadows, which concerned us mainly due to its future nuclear potential, to a direct and daily threat. Its chokehold is tightening around us, through direct conventional attacks and via proxies, and we continue to arm ourselves with defense systems. As impressive and successful as they may be, these systems do not change the strategic balance but preserve it, until the other side manages to penetrate them as well.
Another major disadvantage is related to the budgetary aspect. The ability to maintain normal life even in the face of such attacks may be priceless, but it certainly comes with a price tag. The cost of Israel's defense on the night of the drone attack is estimated at between 2 billion and 5 billion shekels. The cost of the Iranian attack, on the other hand, is about a tenth of that price. The Iranians – and for that matter, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis – can force the entire state of Israel into shelters and cause the cancellation of flights, workdays, and kindergartens at any given moment, all at minimal cost to themselves. A one-time attack will not create a hole in the Israeli budget. But repeated attacks of this kind will become a budgetary burden as these costs continue.
This is similar to purchasing a sophisticated ceramic vest that can protect a soldier from a bullet fired directly at him. But each vest costs two thousand dollars, while the enemy pays one dollar for each bullet. They can fire thousands of bullets at you without denting their budget, while you'll need hundreds of thousands of dollars to protect a single brigade. Statistically, the hundredth bullet will eventually kill someone, with or without a ceramic vest.
This impossible economic equation is an important part of the advantage of Iran's strategic move. Iran may not be interested in an escalation that would spiral into all-out war, but it can continue to launch relatively cheap munitions at us, forcing us to defend ourselves beyond our capabilities, and create enormous implications for Israel's economy.
