The Bahrain conference will convene in late June and focus on the economic aspect of the "deal of the century" the Trump administration has been working on these past two years. The conference already marked its first success by securing the attendance of key Arab countries: the Persian Gulf States, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco, which presently comprise the vital, proactive Arab world. Other countries, including Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen are fighting for their own survival.
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These key Arab countries are partaking in the conference despite efforts by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to dissuade them. This is a diplomatic victory for the United States and a failure for Abbas, whose "all-or-nothing" approach is clearly unrealistic in light of the other serious challenges currently facing the Arab world. With Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen firing missiles at airports in the heart of Saudi Arabia and Saudi-Iranian tensions reaching a fever pitch, Riyadh is telling Abbas that its security supersedes the Palestinian issue, which Arabia believes can be resolved. When Iran is sabotaging oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and provoking the international community with warnings of blocking the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Gulf States are telling Abbas that Iran comes first.
These countries will attend the Bahrain summit because they need the US more than ever.
Jordan's economic situation is dire, made worse by the millions of Syrian refugees who have settled there. The monarchy can feel the tremors rising to the surface. Amman knows its salvation won't come from Abbas, and certainly not from opposing the US.
Egypt, the leading country in Arab world, knows which direction the winds are blowing. Cairo isn't concealing its misgivings about Abbas' behavior and boycott policy. Although it says it will continue supporting the Palestinian position in the context of a final-status deal with Israel, Cairo is simultaneously criticizing the PA president's conduct and believes he is complicating matters instead of simplifying them. Egypt is contending with a bitter domestic terror problem; it fears Iranian hegemony and Turkish subversion. It is coming to Bahrain because it needs something sturdy to lean on, and that isn't Abbas.
In Bahrain the various parties will unpack significant economic initiatives, and the attending countries want to know how much of the pie they can expect to receive. The economic plans on the agenda won't replace political or diplomatic solutions, but the conference will allow the US to unfurl the diplomatic aspects of the peace plan, when the time comes, from a more amenable position.
Reassessing the Palestinian interest in cold, calculating terms will likely lead Abbas to reconfigure his policies of outright boycott and rejection. He would be wise to send an envoy to Bahrain to report back to him about the general mood and closed-door dynamics; otherwise, the train could leave the station without him.
