Just a month and a half ago, we were sure the coronavirus pandemic was behind us.
The majority of the adult population was vaccinated, severe morbidity and mortality rates had dwindled to virtually zero, coronavirus wards were shut down and we were down to double-digits in terms of confirmed cases per day, without any significant restrictions imposed on the public. There was a sense of victory in the air.
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Today, however, we are seeing the number of cases skyrocket, many of them vaccinated individuals. The corona wards are reopening and it seems as if we've gone back in time a year. So what happened? Is the vaccine no longer effective? Are we back in 2020?
No. The vaccine still works and is still effective, and we are not really in the place we were a year ago.
The most important thing the global pandemic taught us is a lesson in delayed gratification. The virus is presenting us with new challenges right now, and the science is addressing those challenges and finding solutions. The problem is that this process takes time, even if far less than before.
There are several theories about why this is happening. One possibility is that the virus has changed form that allows it to multiply faster, and has also somewhat altered its structure, such that the immune system needs more time to identify and eliminate it. This could be the reason we're also seeing vaccinated people get infected. The number of seriously ill patients is still extremely small, such that the vaccine is continuing to serve its purpose – save lives.
Another possibility is that the immunological memory of people who have been vaccinated is gradually waning, which is reflected in the outbreaks among those who were among the first to get vaccinated. As Israel was the first country in the world to vaccinate most of its adult population, it stands to reason that we'd also be the first to see a degree of waning effectiveness and that the first to be afflicted would be the elderly who were vaccinated before everyone else.
This is precisely the problem. We don't know for certain what the reason (or reasons) is for the renewed outbreak of the disease. What is clear is that the behavior of the disease is different in an inoculated population. Fewer people are experiencing worsening symptoms, which gives us more breathing room, pun intended. It's exceedingly obvious that anyone who can get vaccinated and still hasn't should do so. The vaccination is safe and effective and hundreds of millions of people who have received it across the globe are living proof of its success. The vaccination also protects us and those around us from severe disease.
What's next? We have two options. One is to update the vaccine; in other words, to develop a vaccine suited to the characteristics of the new variants. Because it takes a few months to develop and test such a vaccine, as its safety and efficacy need to be assured, it likely wouldn't be approved before this November and no one can promise that we'll get it before the rest of the world this time as well.
Another option is to receive a third dose of the existing vaccine. A third dose should refresh and sharpen the immunological memory. In this case, too, we must make sure that a third dose indeed performs accordingly – which is what researchers are currently trying to determine.
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