The revelation that the different arms of Israel's security system disagree over how to approach the Iran nuclear deal was the talk of the diplomatic-security echelon on Sunday. It also led Defense Minister Benny Gantz, in an unusual move, to release a statement calling for this sort of dialogue to be held behind closed doors as "anything else harms Israel's security."
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The dispute, revealed by Israel Hayom on Sunday, has its roots in expected appointments at the Prime Minister's Office. While under outgoing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Israel's strategy has been to oppose a return to the nuclear deal, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who is set to replace Bennett next week, has yet to have formed an opinion on the matter. Numerous elements are therefore pressuring him to adopt a different approach and support a return to the accord.
Those leading the campaign to change Israel's position are senior officials from the Israel Defense Forces Intelligence and Iran Units who believe a deal will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons in the near future as it will revoke the country's enriched uranium. To their minds, Israel will be able to act to either extend or formulate an appropriate military option for contending with this threat before the existing accord partially expires at the end of 2025 and fully expires at the end of the decade. They believe Israel can leverage its support for the deal with a request for significant military and security assistance from the US.
Other security officials, on the other hand, believe a return to the deal would be a historic mistake. One of the most prominent opponents of the move is Mossad intelligence agency chief David Barnea. National Security Adviser Eyal Hulta is also against the move. They are of the opinion that Israel cannot be a partner to a terrible deal that will soon expire and does not provide an adequate response to the holes in the original accord as well as those that have been discovered in it since. They further warn that the billions of dollars Iran will receive once sanctions are rolled back will go in part toward its buildup in the region and the funding of global terror.
Opponents of the accords also argue that support for the deal would prevent Israel from taking action against Iran's nuclear program should that become necessary. A deal would also limit Israel's ability to continue the aggressive campaign it is conducting, according to foreign reports, against figures and infrastructure connected to Iran's terrorist activity and nuclear program.
Lapid has yet to comment on the issue and will only do so once he enters the Prime Minister's Office. To date, he has publicly aligned with Bennett's stance. If there were any disagreements between them on the issue, they were discussed behind closed doors. Gantz reportedly shares the opinion of senior officials in the IDF Intelligence Unit.
Clues to Lapid's future intentions can potentially be found in messages he exchanged with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and that were reported by Politico.
According to the Politico report, Borrell updated Lapid on his upcoming trip to Tehran aimed at bringing the relevant parties back together for talks to restore the nuclear accord. Lapid responded that "this is a strategic mistake that sends the wrong message to Iran," according to a diplomatic source.
The internal Israeli dispute over how to approach the accord is, however, meaningless, as Washington will have the final say on the matter. US President Joe Biden's administration has been determined to return to the accord from the outset and may even reach a deal with Iran prior to Biden's July Israel trip.
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