A breakthrough event took place 46 years ago that would leave a deep impression on the nature of the international system. This event was then-U.S. President Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to Beijing, which brought an end to the bitter rivalry between the United States and China that had prevailed ever since those countries fought against one another in the Korean War.
With his decision to turn the page on relations with America's enemy and break away from the charged legacy of the past, China's communist leader Mao Zedong acted not only on the basis of his deep anxiety about the growing Soviet threat but also on the basis of his own perception of Nixon's leadership. Mao's perception of Nixon as a firm and determined statesmen in the Cold War served as a safety net that allowed him to cross the Rubicon against the challenge presented by the Kremlin at the time.
Despite the differences between the Chinese front in 1972 and the North Korean arena today, there exists an imaginary line that connects the two. As with Mao, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un's decision to immediately halt its incessant launch of ballistic missiles and initiate a historic peace summit with his sworn enemy U.S President Donald Trump is the direct result of his recognition of the determination of the White House to prevent North Korea from going nuclear at any cost. Trump successfully imbued in Kim his image as an unconventional and unpredictable leader, both in terms of style and action, who is prepared to take risks the likes of which his predecessor in the Oval Office, Barack Obama, would have recoiled from. This is what led to Kim's decision to slam on the brakes right at the edge of the abyss.
Indeed, Kim could not have ignored the monumental shift in U.S. policy following Obama's exit from the White House. While the 44th president did not honor his explicit obligation to respond militarily after the red line delineated by Washington on the use of chemical weapons was crossed by President Bashar Assad in Syria in Sept. 2013, his successor did not hesitate to launch a barrage of missiles at a Syrian military base in Sept. 2017 when the preconditions for such an attack had been set. When this finally clicked in Pyongyang, the arrogance and defiant speech that was so often accompanied by the launch of ballistic missiles and nuclear tests dissipated.
The fact that Trump's blunt threats were accompanied by a series of specific aggressive measures, such as the demonstration of American military might in the region and the tightening of economic sanctions on the regime, contributed to this dramatic change. His uncompromising presidential policies toward the Iranian regime also appear to have impacted Pyongyang's assessments.
In addition to the direct steps taken by the administration, the White House succeeded in turning up the pressure on Kim through an effective strategy of indirect enforcement and the enlistment of North Korea's sole ally, China, in economic sanctions led by Trump under the auspices of the U.N. Beijing's September 2017 decision, the result of pressure from Washington, to impose particularly painful sanctions on its problematic partner, also served as a catalyst, if not breaking point, that led to Kim's capitulation.
And so, the circle has come to a close. The U.S.-China alliance, established in 1972, has borne fruit on the exact same front where the United States and China engaged in war in the 1950s. All that remains is to wait and see whether the summit, in fact, takes place, as Trump, acting from a position of strength, has placed preconditions on it being held. Assuming the summit is ultimately held, one must hope it paves the way for the shelving of the Korean nuclear project. The cautious and reserved response from the White House is understandable since every agreement reached with North Korea under U.S. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush was systematically violated by the hermit kingdom. It will be interesting to see whether the American success will also impact the positions held by the ayatollah regime in Tehran, which in a couple of months, will need to grapple with its own watershed moment, as Trump has promised to withdraw from the nuclear deal unless it is amended.
