Benjamin Netanyahu is a smart strategist. Despite the enigmatic ceasefire policies and his intermittent exchange of blows with Gaza/Hamastan, it's fair to say that the lack of a political resolution – resulting in an impotent government without the Knesset's – is fostering a lack of operational resolution.
This is a clear case of an eroded democracy harming security. The political standstill is one of the main causes of the perpetual on-again-off-again hostilities with Gaza. It should be noted, however, that the trio of Netanyahu, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and IDF chief Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi has found a new pressure lever, which is attacking Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists and bases in Syria.
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But Gaza will not decide the election. The past week marked an electoral turning point. Perhaps the past year (between elections) hasn't been a total waste after all. The iceberg is thawing. These 12 months have allowed the public to slowly digest the persona of Benny Gantz. Before our very eyes, his artificial party is falling apart. The Likud is surging. Apparently, the online barrage against the media for concealing the three scandals involving Blue and White have shaken the public. The acting state attorney's decision to launch an investigation into the Fifth Dimension initially appeared to have a lukewarm effect – but is now showing signs of becoming a political tidal wave. In its wake are the Mendelblit -Ashkenazy tapes and the mobile phone hacked by the Iranians.
Hence, in addition to the regular fateful matters of the day – the Trump plan and Iran – we now have another issue of equal importance. The justice and law enforcement systems in Israel are trying to criminalize the political system. These incrimination efforts, which have largely focused on Prime Minister Netanyahu, are creating an atmosphere of terror between politicians. Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit coined the phrase "a sanctuary for criminals." The phrase has stuck. Now Benny Gantz is using it.
The Knesset is viewed by the Blue and White Party as a sanctuary for politicians suspected of crimes. Gantz doesn't understand the ABCs of democracy and the sovereignty of the people and the Knesset. This trend can be found in other places as well. In the United States and United Kingdom we see the same phenomenon. Those seeking to repel the attack on democracy – which is a government of the people, by the people, for the people – don't have many options. One large party that is democratic in nature, or a second party that is undemocratic.
In recent weeks Netanyahu has wrestled control of the national agenda, while Gantz appears passive and confused. The indictments are off the table, which Netanyahu has flipped against Gantz, Mendelblit and Ashkenazy. The main problem for Israelis remains Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu party. It is the only party for which a vote is unquestionably against the national interest. Without Lieberman, Ahmad Tibi, Ayman Odeh and Hiba Yazbek lose their clout as potential kingmakers.
Why is Lieberman sabotaging the Israeli political system? Everyone is welcome to answer that to the best of their ability and wisdom; regardless, Lieberman's wellbeing as a businessman determines his behavior as a politician. In Israel, which hasn't been this divided and sectarian since the War of Independence, groups that lack any sense of national solidarity are revealing themselves.
Lieberman's propaganda imparts hatred of Arabs and the ultra-Orthodox, maybe even hatred of Jews in general. There's certainly no great love of Israel in his messages. Netanyahu will try enticing those voters from his camp who do have a sense of national responsibility. The Ethiopians, who in the past leaned as a bloc to the right, have partly moved in radical directions. If they return to their natural alliance with the nationalist camp, it could have a tremendous impact for everyone.
The key factor, as everyone is aware, is voter turnout. The focus is on cities such as Tiberias, Netanya, Afula, Haifa, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Lod, Ramle and Kiryat Gat. Beersheba is the model. From the Likud's perspective, the question on the local scale is how to turn 50,000 voters into 60,000. The dynamic of the past week and a half are pointing in this direction.
