Last week was dramatic for Israel – and no less for the Arab nations. A peace agreement with an Arab state, and a few more that are interested, with nothing in exchange? No demand for Palestinian linkage? Could it be?
It's an amazing move. A person living in our region in the 1960s and 1970s would feel dizzy with all that's happening here. The common denominator is clear – make no mistake: this alliance is based on the great fear in moderate Sunni nations of Iran's hegemony – for them this is an immediate and existential danger. When Israel led by Netanyahu wages a determined campaign against the Iranians and their metastases, it's a given that an alliance against this threat would be forged.
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However, the Palestinians look at this situation and are depressed. De facto, the Arab world has abandoned them. They do not have any influence. They have no control of anything, and their struggle apparently bores the Arab world.
I'm not convinced with the claims saying that the freezing of sovereignty in the Jordan Valley gave the Arab states an opportunity to come with us towards an agreement. Those statements are lip service, just like the concern of Nasser, who led the Arab world in the 1960s, and claimed that Egypt is committed to the Palestinians. These statements are for internal use, but in fact what we're talking about is a clear regional interest. Just like then, that's how it is today. The only difference is that then it was against Israel – and today everything is changing before our eyes.
It's no wonder Hamas is stirring. Even in Gaza they understand they're becoming an uninteresting and abandoned issue, certainly not a condition for anything. They look and can't believe their eyes: Arab states joining Israel and realizing not only that it isn't the problem – it's the solution. How amazing to remember that just 50 years ago they weren't willing to even think of a bond with us. The Khartoum Conference and the famous "Three Nos" spoke for themselves.
What will Hamas do? The answer is clear. As part of "the alliance of the oppressed," Hamas shoots, goes out of its way, but still remains restrained. The Iranians have clear influence over this process. What else do they have left except for "spurring" the oppressed? Iran influences what happens in Gaza, that's not new. Hamas understands it has no other patron. That's how the connection between the ayatollahs and the oppressed in Gaza was forged. As usual, the Palestinians, instead of getting on the agreement wagon, refuse and join the hated. Chronicle of a story foretold, it must be said.
The rest is clear. As long as Israel strengthens its ties with the Arab world – the Palestinians will continue to seclude themselves and react with what they've got. They'll try to drag Israel into an escalation, heat things up, the Iranians will cheer on, fund, equip – anything they're still capable of doing.
As long as the alliance between Israel and the Arabs intensifies – the Palestinians' situation will worsen. Only a pragmatic leadership can restrain the situation and lead to long term quiet. From month to month, the dilemma for the Palestinians will become clearer – should they continue to harass Israel and be hit time again, or once and for all make an "exit" and maximize their standing before it totally disappears. At this point, there don't seem to be any signs of internalizing.
These issues take on a new meaning when the Lebanese president was asked about the option of peace with Israel. He didn't rule it out. "We have things to fix with them," he said. This is a president of a Hezbollah state, sponsored by Iran.
The Arab world is going through a revolution, Israel has become a preferred friend. As long as there is no strategic change among Palestinians – we'll continue to see more provocations from them. On their part, for now, they prefer to be on the oppressed side.
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