This week's two incidents of terrorists slipping across the southern border dropped into the hands of Hamas and the other Palestinian groups like a ripe piece of fruit. But the fact that Hamas hasn't yet responded to the infiltration, although the cell members were caught, is interesting. It's not certain that the infiltrations were planned; it appears that they were initiated at the cell level rather than under orders from above – in other words, the leaders of Hamas' military wing.
It also turns out that not only Israel but the entire region is worried about the security situation escalating. Immense international intelligence efforts and security coordination are going into thwarting any possibility of escalation, the main concern being that escalation in the Gaza Strip will lead to a downward spiral that will engulf the West Bank and possibly Jordan and Egypt.
The Passover holiday, when most of the Israeli public is on vacation and flocks to public spaces, has always been a time of rioting and terrorist activity. There is concern that the stretch of events that will begin with Passover Eve this Friday through the planned "March of Return" scheduled to take place on Nakba Day in mid-May, will be rife with tension. At any moment, that tension is liable to blow up into a military conflict.
Hamas is sending the message that it has no desire for escalation but is operating shrewdly. Given the failed attempts to reconcile with Fatah and the additional sanctions that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has applied to Gaza, the movement's political isolation, the blockade on the Gaza Strip and the humanitarian distress there, the organization is so far holding back from military clashes with Israel. But the key words here are "so far." This is because Hamas is devoting all its energy to preparing for the next war.
The organization is satisfied with smuggled weapons. It is still rebuilding and improving its military capabilities, on both the operational and the logistical levels. Hamas' military wing is investing heavily in manufacturing weapons and recruiting and training more and more Palestinian youth, who opt to join the group's military wing because of the high unemployment in Gaza and a chance to earn good money rather than out of ideology.
Since Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014, Hamas' military wing has upgraded and beefed up the elite units it has established in recent years, like its marine commandos, its cyber unit, and its rocket building and launching brigade, as well as the engineering and search-and-rescue units that operate under the auspices of Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades. But it is also providing services to Gaza's civilian population.
Israeli security officials expect the tension to continue for the next few weeks, with each side working to limit exceptional events – as long as everyone plays by the rules and no one is killed, and there are no provocations that put the country's security or sovereignty at risk.
