It's not only the people who vote who influence things – it's also the people who don't. For the worse. Anyone who intends to stay home on Tuesday, to stay away from the polls, to boycott the election, everyone who despairs and thinks that there's no point, that "nothing will change," that again, we won't have a clear winner, that a fifth election is just around the corner; or that their vote is superfluous because "Netanyahu and the Likud already have it in the bag" – should think again. The unknown quantity of Tuesday's election is the voter turnout. This hidden factor could decide the election, either way. Low voter turnout could not only lead to over or under-representation of certain sectors and parties, but also have a dramatic effect on the makeup of the government and the identity of the next prime minister.
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This time, there is a particularly high risk of low voter turnout. The country's fourth election in under two years finds the public tired of the political chain collision it has been a part of in that time. Many – from all camps – are sick of the filth, the mudslinging, the spins, and the lies that the parties, campaigns, and candidates have been flinging at each other. On the Left, there is a sense of despair and a belief that everything is stalled, with little chance of removing Prime Minister Netanyahu from power. On the Right, a dangerous mix of apathy and arrogance has emerged that could bring down the Likud in its "own" cities. The fact that this time, unlike the previous ones, is not a fight between two leading candidates, also hurts motivation to vote and contributes to the comparative disenchantment. Thanks to the split in the Joint Arab List, voter turnout in the Arab sector is also expected to drop. Polls are predicting voter turnout to tumble from about 65% to below 57% on Tuesday. Even the Haredi public, which usually flocks to the polls en masse, could see a relatively low turnout for completely prosaic reasons: the election is being held three days before Passover, a time usually devoted to shopping, cleaning, and preparations for seder night and the rest of the holiday.
And in addition to all this, we also have COVID. Countries that have held elections during the pandemic have seen voter turnout drop by 7-14% Here, however, the spread is being checked and we are getting vaccinated and resuming our normal lives, but there is no way of knowing how many people will be afraid to go to the polls because they are afraid of contracting the virus, and tens of thousands of COVID carriers and people in quarantine, as well as hundreds of thousands of unemployed, will be voting.
If all sectors see a proportional decline in voter turnout, it will have little effect on the election results, by the non-votes cancelling each other out. However, if only one sector, side, or party sees low voter turnout, but the other side sees its voters cast ballots, this unknown factor could take on importance for one side or the other. If that happens, not only does every vote count – so will every vote that isn't cast.
So don't stay home. Come to the polls. Put aside your despair and your lack of faith. Take your fate in your hands and shape it actively, not passively. Don't allow the non-voters to determine the results of the election. Democracy means rule by the people. We've forgotten, but originally, elections weren't a punishment, but a privilege that allows us to be partners in deciding our reality. Politics is a cynical place, and often a dirty one. Let us – at least us, the voters – uphold a modicum of innocence and faith that we have the ability to make a difference.
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