As the evening news programs broadcast images on Monday reminiscent of the Second Intifada, senior military officials convened to mark 20 years to Operative Defensive Shield.
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The atmosphere at the event was relatively festive. Participants, among them Defense Minister Benny Gantz and IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, boasted of the successful operation during which the security establishment defeated – temporarily, of course – Palestinian terror and brought about fundamental change to the security situation.
Anyone who follows the news cannot help but to compare the attacks perpetrated across Israeli cities during the Second Intifada, which lasted from 2000 to 2005, to the murderous campaigns in Hadera and Beersheba that killed six innocent Israelis and were carried out by Arab Israeli citizens of the state. The Shin Bet security agency has faced serious and justifiable criticism for its failure to thwart these attacks, in particular in Hadera, where two Islamic State terrorists coordinated the attack, which was captured by security cameras, and carried firearms.
In the Shin Bet's defense, when it comes to Israeli citizens, its hands are relatively tied: In accordance with Israeli law, the security system cannot listen in on every citizen or track every potential subject whose sole offense is identifying with terrorist ideology. Moreover, the Shin Bet cannot take citizens into administrative detention without substantial proof of criminal activity. According to Shin Bet assessments, there are dozens of additional Arab Israelis – an insignificant percentage of the sector – who identify with the Islamic State's ideology. Yet concerns have been raised over the possibility Islamic State sleeper cells could be waking up.
Past experience teaches us that waves of terror don't come to a halt all at once. In the best-case scenario, days or even weeks of terror lay ahead.
In the current state of affairs, the defense establishment must act on several fronts, the most central and immediate of which is intelligence, if it hopes to nip the wave of terror in the bud. Despite the difficulty, the Shin Bet must use all the tools at its disposal to locate potential terrorists and use all the means it has developed in previous terror waves to prevent copycat attacks. To help the organization do its job, the possibility of lowering the criteria for the administrative detention of Israeli citizens, at least temporarily, should be considered. The demolition of terrorists' houses should also be taken into consideration even if those homes are located within the Green Line.
Israeli citizens with the necessary training should also be encouraged to arm themselves so that they can quickly respond in the event of an attack.
The security system's greatest fear is that the terrorist attacks now concentrated within the Green Line will spill over into Judea and Samaria. The Israel Defense Forces is preparing for this possibility, including through reinforcements.
Of course, we must also mention the greatest threat posed by the Gaza Strip. To ensure Hamas is motivated to maintain the calm, Israel has, among others, authorized this week a significant increase to the cap on the number of workers from the coastal enclave allowed to enter Israel for work. Although, as we saw last year, should the events escalate and spill over into Judea and Samaria, or worse, the Temple Mount, Israel could find itself facing an all-out escalation in the Palestinian arena.
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