Winds of war are blowing through the Eastern Mediterranean. No one wants it, but each side is preparing for it. A journalist from the pro-Iranian Al Mayadeen network reported "routine traffic" on the main highway to Damascus on Wednesday, but credible reports point to a high state of alert among Russian, Iranian and Syrian forces ahead of a possible American attack, as well as among the Shiite militias and Hezbollah.
U.S. President Donald Trump's promise to launch "smart missiles" and Russian President Vladimir Putin's threats to shoot them down have greatly enhanced the prospect of war. Meanwhile, an anonymous source on Wednesday sought to alleviate tensions despite the mutual muscle-flexing, and the "emergency hotline" between U.S. headquarters in Qatar and its Russian equivalent at Hmeimim Air Base in northern Syria is still open.
The decision over the scope of the pending attack in Syria presents Trump with a tough dilemma. If he settles for launching dozens of missiles at a Syrian military base, as he did one year ago after Assad used sarin gas, the American president's credibility will take a considerable hit, mainly because the Syrian president was not especially troubled by that attack and continued slaughtering his own people.
On the other hand, a broader attack by the U.S. and its allies against regime targets, and perhaps even Russian and Iranian targets, might only escalate the conflict. Some of Trump's supporters warned him Wednesday that any attempt to "raid Syria" to distract public opinion from the FBI's raid on his attorney Michael Cohen (over a payment, allegedly hush money, that he made to a porn actress), could be too risky a gamble.
The dilemma for the Russians is also complicated. After fully backing Assad's denial about the chemical attack in Douma and vowing to defend the Syrian regime, can Putin show restraint in the face of a strong American strike in Syria? And what will happen if Russian forces are hit? And who will compensate for such a humiliation?
The Iranians, too, are in a quandary. Although Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's senior adviser, Ali Akbar Velayati, threatened to attack Israel in retaliation for its alleged airstrike on the T4 military base in Syria earlier this week, Tehran has not repeated it, perhaps because Khamenei has no interest in opening a broad front against Israel at this particular point in time.
Israel has been right, despite the aforementioned complexities, to prepare itself, and also to make it clear that if the Iranians dare attack, Israel won't limit itself to hitting Iranian targets – rather it will use all the force at its disposal to topple the Assad regime. As all this has unfolded, meanwhile, the winds of war have begun blowing from a different direction.
