On Sunday, if there are no last-minute surprises, it will happen. The members of the next government will arrive at the Knesset, excited, with their families, and one after another will swear allegiance to Israel. In that moment, all the pains, pricks of conscience, and fears that they at least appeared to have these past several weeks will vanish, and they can lean back on their comfortable chairs and exhale. The hard part is over and the goal has been reached. After more than 12 years, Netanyahu is out.
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In the first part of his term, incoming prime minister Naftali Bennett will try to send a clear message that despite the bitter disappointment he caused to an entire political camp, he has no intention of changing his spots. He will fight the battles of the Right. In his first days in office, he will try to rack up as many successes as possible to make it clear to his supporters that they have nothing to worry about. Bennett is not Ariel Sharon, and there isn't another disengagement looming. The battle isn't an ideological one. Bennett is no ideologue. He never has been. Like everything that leads him, the fight is part of his person ambition. Bennett's struggle with the values of the Right at the start of his term as prime minister will be an attempt to restore some of his lost honor. As of now, he signed off on one of the biggest acts of political fraud of all time, and he has some competition.
On the Left, after the applause for him joining them in their mission to bring down Netanyahu – the first step to taking back power – voices are popping up that aren't sitting well with Bennett and his people. And that's even before the government is sworn in. The real criticism will begin later, when Bennett morphs from a helpful entity to an obstacle. If he wants to regain even a smidgen of his former status, he – along with Gideon Sa'ar – will need right-wing successes in diplomacy, legal affairs, defense and security, and the settlements. In his first week in office, he will have to decide whether to legalize or demolish the young settlement Evyatar. Bennett, we can assume, will do everything to avoid having the demolition of a settlement be one of his first decisions. Otherwise, he'll be starting off on the wrong foot. Since it will be the first week of the new government, it's possible that even partners like Labor and Meretz will go along with it.
But the longer the government is in power, Bennett will realize that he has no way back. With the Likud, the Haredi factions, and the religious Zionists in the Opposition, he really has no way of maintaining his right-wing identity. His abandoned base's disappointment will only increase, and he will be forced to look for a new base of voters that will go with him on his new path. That is when the entire right-wing camp will start missing the Netanyahu government, badly.
Ideological flexibility
Since 1991, Israel has been in a permanent state of negotiations with the Palestinians. First to establish autonomy, and then a state. It's been going on for 30 years under the Shamir, Rabin, Netanyahu, Barak, Sharon, and Olmert governments, and entailed committees, celebratory meetings, launches, freezes, plans, and dreams, all of which Netanyahu cut off about a decade ago, when he deleted the term "peace talks," despite the fact that he was the first Israeli prime minister to recognize a two-state plan. He managed to maneuver around a hostile American administration and a supportive one without moving ahead so much as an inch with a plan that could force Israel to hand territory over to the Arabs so they could form some kind of independent government. Those days are over. A majority of ministers in the new government are fervent supporters of peace talks. Messages to that effect have already been dispatched even before they are sworn in. Bennett will have zero ability to maneuver or gloss over the pressure that will be coming from the American administration. The members of the new government will be the ones to trip it up, and he will very quickly realize that its either him, or the territories. It's not hard to guess which he'll choose. He has effectively already made that choice when he joined this government with his eyes wide open.
Bennett isn't the only one whose values are fragile. The rest of the Yamina members, it seems, are characterized by notable ideological flexibility. For an entire week it looked as if MK Nir Orbach, a notable figure in religious Zionism, was really troubled about the moral conflict he was faced with – the value of friendship and loyalty against the values of the Right, obedience to rabbis and protecting the Land of Israel.
What didn't the supporters and opponents of the new government try in the last few days when it came to Orbach. In hindsight, it turned out that was truly troubling him was the fact that the future government would be formed without him having been promised a ministerial post. That matter was arranged in an instant and the missing vote will be cast at the proper time and place. Likud ministers have been walking around with their heads hanging. They thought a miracle would happen at the last minute. But as the week ended, it turned out that not Netanyahu nor anyone else had a rabbi to pull out of a hat that would keep him in power.
In addition to the fight over the crumbs that are left, like committee chairmanships, a battle is also beginning for the Likud leadership. Some candidates, who used to see themselves as having a chance of grabbing the top spot, see a term in the Opposition as an opportunity to challenge Netanyahu – less because they think they have a chance of beating him and more because there is a chance for a non-humiliating defeat, which could be a springboard for when he finally steps down.
The hottest name is Yuli Edelstein, who threw down the gauntlet by opting not to run for president. When they saw that he wasn't aiming for that position, everyone in the Likud realized what his intentions were. Another name is Tzachi Hanegbi. A few senior Likud officials have seen signs that he intends to give it a shot.
Despite the disappointment at losing their ministerial portfolios, the Likud, it appears, is ready to fight the Bennett-Lapid government. The face that the new government is not homogenous, to say the least, puts wind in their sails. The big question is how long it will stay there. The Opposition wages a war of attrition, and its often a challenging and Sisyphean one. After so many years in power, it won't come easily to most Likud lawmakers.
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