With little resistance from a friendly White House, Israel has launched a new settlement push in the West Bank since President Donald Trump took office, laying the groundwork for what could be the largest construction binge in years, according to data obtained by The Associated Press.
The figures, gathered from official government sources by watchdog group Peace Now, show an increase in building in 2018 and a sharp spike in planning for future construction.
This trend has only deepened Palestinian mistrust of the Trump administration as it says it is preparing to roll out a Mideast peace plan. Each new settlement expansion further diminishes the chances of setting up a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Both supporters and opponents of settlements confirm a change in atmosphere since early 2017, when Trump took over from President Barack Obama, whose administration had tried to rein in construction.
"The feeling of the [Israeli] government is everything is allowed, that the time to do things is now because the [U.S.] administration is the most pro-settlement you can ever have," said Hagit Ofran of Peace Now's Settlement Watch program.
Peace Now uses several measurements of settlement activity. These include "plans," or the bureaucratic stages of preparing a project, including initial proposals; "tenders," when bids are solicited from contractors to do large projects; and "construction starts," when the building actually begins.
Each of these figures tells a different story. While construction starts give a snapshot of the current level of settlement activity, they reflect decisions made years ago. In contrast, the planning and tender stages are seen as forward-looking indicators of a government's intentions.
The data compiled by Peace Now showed a drop in construction starts during Trump's first year in office, to 1,643 units in 2017 from 3,066 units the previous year. This drop appears to reflect the lingering effect of reduced planning during the final two years of the Obama administration.
But the data for the first nine months of 2018 indicate the beginning of a Trump effect, with construction starts 20% higher than the same period a year earlier.
These trends are even more evident when looking at the planning process. In 2017, plans were advanced to build 6,712 new settlement homes, roughly 2.5 times the 2016 level.
In 2018, plans for an additional 5,618 units were advanced, nearly half of which were processed last week alone. Together, these numbers are the highest level of planning seen since 2013. At that time, Israel pushed forward settlement construction to counter criticism of its release of Palestinian prisoners as part of then-Secretary of State John Kerry's peace efforts.
A United Nations spokesman reiterated that the world body has called for a halt to all settlement activity. A 2016 U.N. Security Council resolution condemned them as a "flagrant violation" of international law.
The biggest surge in settlement activity during the Trump era is in tenders – large projects that are ready to be launched.
"There's definitely a change of atmosphere. There's definitely a change of winds," said Oded Revivi, mayor of Efrat, a major Jewish community in Samaria.
Revivi said that Obama pressured Israel into greatly curtailing settlement activity. Now, he said, Israel is trying to make up for lost time.
"Basically what you're seeing now is the statistics are trying to catch up to the needs that were built up during the eight years of the Obama administration, when everything was in a standstill," he said.
The Palestinians and most of the international community consider Israeli settlements to be illegal and obstacles to peace, and for decades, a string of U.S. presidents, both Republican and Democrat, condemned settlement construction.
Things quickly changed when Trump took office. Trump refused to condemn settlement construction and surrounded himself with advisers – including his son-in-law Jared Kushner and Ambassador to Israel David Friedman – who are Orthodox Jews with close ties to settlements. Trump at times has asked Israel to show restraint, but his administration has remained largely silent as Israel has pressed ahead with its construction efforts over the past two years.
This has been welcome news to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose outgoing coalition is dominated by religious and nationalist settlement sympathizers. Favored to win re-election in April, Netanyahu has said he expects his next government to look very similar.
Israel never annexed Judea and Samaria, meaning the Israeli military remains the sovereign there. Construction in the area requires approval from the Office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, a Defense Ministry body that oversees civilian affairs in the territory.
COGAT routinely portrays decisions on new settlement activity as a technical matter, playing down the political impact. In a statement, COGAT said it acts in accordance with planning and building laws in Judea and Samaria.
Critics say COGAT routinely promotes settlement expansion and development at the expense of Palestinian communities in the West Bank.
The settlement surge has added to the Palestinians' distrust of the White House. The Palestinians cut off ties with the administration over a year ago after Trump recognized contested Jerusalem as Israel's capital. PA President Mahmoud Abbas has said he will reject any peace plan the Trump team presents.
Abbas' spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said U.S. "silence and lack of condemnation and pressure" have given a "green light" to the Israeli government to step up settlement activities.
