In two more days, this intense and emotionally charged election campaign will come to an end, leaving the next government with the task of rehabilitating the destruction this political battle has left in its wake. This task, it appears, won't be too difficult. Despite the mutual attacks, derisions, lies from every direction, clamor and general turbulence, it seems that this time there is no real animosity between the candidates; nor do they harbor the same boundless hatred for one another that we have often seen in the past. No one will be shocked if ultimately, Benny Gantz and Benjamin Netanyahu sit in the same government, or if the haredi parties agree to join a coalition under Blue and White.
The strategy employed by the main candidates – Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Blue and White co-leaders Gantz and Yair Lapid – was decidedly different throughout the entire election race. While Gantz projected confidence in victory from the start, Netanyahu took the opposite approach and projected a sense of panic and concern that he could lose. Netanyahu, and apparently Gantz and Lapid as well, know their constituencies; each choosing the path, in their estimation, most conducive to mobilizing them to go out and vote when the moment of truth arrives.
These opposing approaches will only become more pronounced over the next two days. Gantz and Lapid will spare no effort to create the sense that victory is not only within reach, but practically assured, and will call on everyone in their camp to jump aboard the winning bandwagon. However, the more successful they are in this regard, the more fuel they will give Netanyahu. When Likudniks feel a sense of impending defeat, they flock to the voting stations and win. It's the Catch-22 of the 2019 election.
Netanyahu wants another term in office, but he's also thinking of the next one waiting for him. He doesn't want another six months or a year, rather several years, and to this end, he needs allies who can help him traverse the judicial system's intervention in his affairs. The ultra-Orthodox factions, Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, Rabbi Rafi Peretz and Bezalel Smotrich will give him the space he needs – whether through preventative legislation or lack of meddling if an indictment is issued. But this isn't enough; Netanyahu will also need Moshe Kahlon, and maybe even Gantz himself.
Benny Gantz is also feeling out his path to the next coalition. According to assessments, if the right-wing bloc fails to reach 61 seats, and the president tasks him with forming the next government, this would actually be feasible. It would be a polar, sputtering coalition, but enough for him to realize his fantasy of seizing the coveted premiership. If he receives the president's mandate the haredi parties, Lieberman and perhaps even Bennett will scurry to his side. In this scenario, the gap between election promises and reality would be bigger than usual. When Tzipi Livni mentioned a possible coalition with Netanyahu, she was met with an overwhelming barrage of invective. In the case of Gantz and Lapid, this hasn't been the case. Their fiery assault against Netanyahu, characterized by derision and lies, appears to stem from political motivations. They want to take his spot, nothing more. Netanyahu, too, doesn't really hate them. And even if he does, this hasn't stopped him in the past when political considerations have hung in the balance.
The West Bank sovereignty card Netanyahu played Saturday is a strong one. It was essentially the Likud's first election promise after three months of campaigning. Netanyahu wants to use it to shed some of the excess fat, in his view, that some of the right-wing parties represent, but he isn't opting for an aggressive campaign that could leave him with nothing on the day after the election. Along the way, he has strengthened Moshe Feiglin's status as a potential power broker who both sides will court once the exit polls come in.
