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Home Analysis

The Knesset inaugurates another era of uncertainty

The 35th government will not be sworn in so long as Blue and White keeps its maximalist demands, and this could take a while. For now, any unity deal is a nonstarter.

by  Mati Tuchfeld
Published on  10-04-2019 13:01
Last modified: 10-04-2019 14:09
A new Knesset, just like the old oneContact

The Knesset building in Jerusalem | Archives: Contact

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The Knesset's inauguration on Thursday was an important milestone in Israeli history, but it may have the shortest term in Israeli history.

There is no way of telling whether this Knesset will last longer than the previous one that was elected in April only to be dissolved two months later.

There were many events on Thursday, and many announcements, but nothing has helped Israel resolved its political impasse.

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Where is Israel heading? Are we going to have another early election? For all the chatter during the Knesset ceremonies on Thursday, these questions did not get an answer.

If a government is to be formed, Blue and White Chairman Benny Gantz must accept President Reuven Rivlin's proposal for a power-sharing mechanism with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu believes Gantz will ultimately come around and embrace Rivlin's terms. Netanyahu is banking on Gantz finally realizing that the Likud and its allies are not going to break and that the incumbent prime minister will have to be the first to serve as prime minister in any rotation agreement.

In light of Gantz's conduct on Thursday, he is not ready to give in. On Thursday he made new demands: He said that Netanyahu could no longer serve as prime minister, not even on a rotating basis, as long as he is still a suspect in three corruption cases. If this is Blue and White's new position, then any unity deal is a nonstarter.

Blue and White is banking on a rebellion within Likud to emerge as the prospect of a third election becomes a real possibility.

It hopes that Likud will oust Netanyahu and elect a new chairperson, but those hopes will be dashed once again if Netanyahu calls for snap leadership race and gets elected with an overwhelming majority to head the Likud.

Likud MK and Netanyahu rival Gideon Sa'ar tweeted that he was ready for a snap primary race in Likud. His battle cry caught Netanyahu off guard. After all, the talk about an early election was nothing but a trial balloon that was designed to bring down Blue and White from its high horse and convince it that Netanyahu was not going anywhere. But now that Sa'ar is gearing up for a fight, a race is very likely to take place.

Sa'ar may find it hard to turn back the clock and drop out of the race, but even if he loses to Netanyahu, it would be a win for him.

By casting himself as Netanyahu's only challenger, he puts himself as the presumptive successor. He has nothing to lose, and he also knows that Netanyahu will not appoint him as minister any time soon.

That said, staying in the race could backfire and destroy his career if he suffers a humiliating defeat, but Sa'ar is convinced that he will emerge with a good showing.

Tags: Blue and WhiteGantzIsraelLikudNetanyahu

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