After months of campaigning, the Democratic Party primaries are finally set to begin next week.
As a tradition, Iowa is the first to vote, and it does so in its own unique way, the caucuses, which very few really know their intricate rules, one of which, for example, allows votes to be passed from one candidate to another during the counting.
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At the height of the campaign, there were over 20 candidates in the Democratic race, but in recent weeks they have been dropping out at an accelerated pace due to their dwindling cash flow, stalled performance in the polls, or simply because they realized they don't really stand a chance.
There are currently 12 hopefuls remaining but most know they are fighting a losing battle. Whoever wins in Iowa will earn get tremendous momentum, and if he or she succeeds in New Hampshire the week after, it will be very difficult to stop them.
Some polls show that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is currently in the lead in Iowa over former Vice President Joe Biden. Sanders also has a certain lead in New Hampshire, but all the polls are expected to change after Iowa. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has lost some of her stride, but it appears that her campaign is the most organized of the ground, and in Iowa – where there are no polling stations but rather caucuses, many of which are in tiny communities where only a few dozen people vote – that is paramount.
Iowa can literally make or break the candidates and, in many ways, set the momentum for the rest of the Democrats' race, so at least one candidate is likely to drop out after Iowa.
A favorite to come in a surprising second is Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Seen as the "outsider" – a young gay man – eager liberal voters in Iowa may want to bet on him because he symbolizes something new, as Barack Obama did in 2016.
A prominent candidate in the race is former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who decided in advance that he was not going to focus on Iowa or New Hampshire, despite their importance in determining public perception early in the presidential race.
Bloomberg has decided to focus on a media blitz in the states that will vote in March as part of Super Tuesday, this time held on March 3, when the largest number of states and US territories will hold a presidential preference primary or caucus.
Super Tuesday primaries are set to take place in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and more than one-third of the US population is expected to vote on March 3.
This is a big gamble for Bloomberg, but it's also his only way to win. He also knows that the polls have him, as well as Biden, in the lead against Donald Trump in states that are key to deciding November's elections.
But while Sanders, Warren, Biden, and their ilk bicker, Americans understand that these elections will actually be about the "yes or no Trump" question, which only increases his control over the public sphere since entering political life in June 2015.
Sanders and Biden are leading the polls, but it is very difficult to know who will win in Iowa, where the system of election is so unique. There are other states that would vote this way, but Iowa is the first to race. This unique method also makes it possible for candidates such as Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota senator, to surprise pollsters.
Making headlines (or not)
Biden is constantly making headlines over Trump's impeachment trial in the Senate, which is in full swing, but the American public has lost interest in the proceedings. But Biden's problem isn't Trump, especially not in the key states if he indeed ends up getting the Democratic nomination.
Biden, who grew up in Pennsylvania – the heart of Americana – will give Trump a run for his money with respect to getting the white blue-color votes. But his problem is that for Democrats that set the tone, the young, left-leaning electorate, see him as too much of a centrist; too much of the "establishment."
So the battle in Iowa is actually two fights in one: Between Biden's moderate camp and Sanders' radical supporters, and between the hardcore Left itself on the question of who represents it better – the socialist Jewish Sanders, who has been in Washington for decades, or Warren, who is seen as a fresh breeze in the party and someone who can bridge the differences between the various factions in it.
Meanwhile, it is the Republicans that are making the real headlines.
Trump, who is assured the nomination, aims to steal the show next week. He is slated to deliver his annual State of the Union address on Wednesday and he hopes that by then, or soon after, he will be acquitted in the Senate.
Trump has no intention of letting Iowa, where he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by the biggest landslide for a Republican since Reagan, swing back in favor of the Democrats in November.
Republicans, and especially Trump's election campaign, want to show Americans that the 2016 win in Iowa was not a fluke and that it can be done again.
The 2020 presidential race is on, full throttle. One thing is sure – it will not be a boring one.
Boaz Bismuth is editor-in-chief of Israel Hayom
