Four years ago, during the Democratic primary in South Carolina on Feb. 27, 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton beat her main rival in the race, Bernie Sanders, with an unbelievable 47.5 point margin. That sweeping victory gave her the momentum and was a springboard for a slate of impressive victories in all of the southern states that voted in the Super Tuesday primaries, and paved the road for her to win the coveted Democratic nomination.
Against this backdrop, the question being asked today is whether the Hillary precedent valid when it comes to the current campaign and Democratic candidate Joe Biden? After two embarrassing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, he recovered in Nevada, coming in second after Sanders. And this last Saturday, in the primary in South Carolina, with a huge gap of 28.5 points, he unconditionally overcame Sanders, who until then was securely leading the Democratic pack. He did so with the support of a majority of African-Americans, about 60% of the Democratic camp in South Carolina.
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Now, after a horrific beginning to the primary season, which almost thwarted his chances to win the nomination, could we be witnessing a candidate who has nine lives, can pick himself up after being knocked down, and leverage his recent achievements to succeed also in the crucial test that awaits him on Super Tuesday? Nevada, and especially South Carolina, have given Biden the opportunity to come back from the political cold straight into the Democratic center stage. Having said that, his chances of duplicating Clinton's powerful performance are still unclear.
First, remember that as opposed to Clinton who was beaten by Sanders in New Hampshire yet overtook him earlier in Iowa – Biden came out of the first two races battered and humiliated. He came in fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, lagging far behind not only Sanders, but also after fringe candidates like Pete Buttigieg, who announced two days ago he is dropping out of the race after his complete failure in South Carolina, and due to his inability to enlist any support from African-American voters.
Furthermore, compared to the well-oiled machine that Clinton built, and compared to the Vermont senator's proven ability to galvanize his flock – Biden's logistical base continues to be characterized by ineffectiveness and low motivation among activists. Compared to Biden, Sanders has placed himself in a promising position to win the race, by large numbers, in California, where no less than 416 delegates are going to be elected today for the party convention. Sanders is also expected to win in the key state of Texas, albeit by smaller margins.
Despite this bleak scenario, one cannot dismiss the possibility that after his strong showing in South Carolina, Super Tuesday could turn into a Big Bang for a man who until recently was considered politically dead.
The fight now comes to its main watershed moment, and will take place on a broad geographic and demographic front. Fourteen states will take part in the democratic process and will choose one-third of the party's delegates, who in July – during the convention in Milwaukee – will vote for the Democratic nominee. And even if Sanders' advantage in California still seems insurmountable, the picture in other areas is far from clear. In these arenas, Biden's overwhelming victory on Saturday could give him the momentum to enthuse his bloc.
Therefore, the "Clinton precedent" does not seem so farfetched, at least in the south of the country. And indeed, in states like Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and North Carolina, where many of the Democrat voters are African American, there is definitely a chance that the former vice president will get most of the delegates and remain in a promising position. Also, the withdrawal of Buttigieg, considered a pragmatist, narrows the battlefield for the moderate vote of the party. This is only true if his rival Mike Bloomberg does not succeed in cutting too deeply into his traditional base.
Furthermore, Biden's return from the abyss to political life has enthused the Democratic base with battle spirit, coming together to block the Sanders momentum and avoid a nightmare scenario of defeat in November like that of liberal George McGovern's in 1972. Biden's last debate performance in South Carolina was methodical, articulate and energetic (compared to a dull Sanders) – a fact that raised the level of optimism among the party's leadership, which is in the midst of a rescue operation for its preferred candidate.
Ultimately, the decision today will determine the trends and directions for the battles ahead.
It may also answer one of the key questions of these primaries. It is a question that has to do with Sanders' ability to enlist support beyond his young and enthusiastic voting bloc, and to draw support from audiences necessary for a Democratic win – the blue-collar, white voters over the age of 45, whose defection from the Clinton camp gave Trump victory in 2016.
The decision today could shed light on this issue as well, and lift the thick fog that is still covering the Democratic battlefield. What is already clear is that after Biden's meteoric rise in South Carolina, the rumors of his upcoming political death were greatly exaggerated.
