Two days ago, on Passover eve, after the Jewish presidential candidate from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, completed all his seder preparations, he told the American people – about a month too late – that he was withdrawing from the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.
This, although the final nail was hammered into his campaign a long time ago. And yet only on Wednesday – in the wake of another trouncing, this time in the key state of Wisconsin – the senator from Vermont internalized his time had officially passed and announced his departure from the stage.
This act, too, came as a considerable surprise to his camp of followers, as Sanders' fanatical and burning belief in the righteousness of his path and ultimate victory of his socialistic model could have left him in the Utah wilderness (one of the only states he won a primary) or woods of Vermont (his home state) as a lone guerilla fighter, persevering – like those Japanese soldiers after the surrender of the Japanese empire in 1945 – in his desperate war in the hope of Godot's arrival or the the revival of the savior, Karl Marx, with tidings of the revolution.
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Now that this nagging background noise is finally gone from the political map, the time has come to assess the positions and chances of the two candidates left in the race for the most desired office in the universe: President Donald Trump and his democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. Under the present circumstances of the coronavirus pandemic, the fight between them has turned into a national referendum on one issue only – who among the two can best contend with the crisis, and march America back on the path to prosperity and growth?
At this stage, at least, six and a half months before the fateful decision, the balance is slightly skewed, even if only slightly, in favor of the former vice president, who is ahead in all the national polls with around a 6% lead over Trump. Although the current picture could change several times over, it's ample reflection of the fact that at the initial stage of the virus' outbreak Biden displayed concern in the face of the impending storm and called for consultations with experts to properly prepare for the challenge at the gate.
The White House, in the meantime, adopted a complacent and smug approach and promised that the virus would quickly dissipate into the abyss with barely a trace. Indeed, the 45th president has since completely changed his tone and approach, and not only has he internalized the severity of the problem but has released massive funds and astronomical bailout packages to help the various states cope with the destructive results of the virus. And yet the initial delay in gathering federal resources is still fresh in the mind of the public.
As a result, we saw a 3% drop in support for the White House over the past week. What's more, Biden has made inroads, far greater than Hillary Clinton four years ago, with Trump's target audience of blue-collar Americans in the Rust Belt.
This fact should set off alarm bells for the president, whose chances of remaining in office once again depend on his success with blue-collar Americans, who were the focus of his 2016 campaign. And if that isn't enough, if Biden's current efforts to unite the ranks and reel in Sanders' and Elizabeth Warren's liberal supporters (who represent about one-third of the party) under one tent, then come November 3, a unified Democratic party could under certain circumstances, also retake the Senate.
Yet all things considered, and although the Kremlin will be far less able to intervene in the upcoming election compared to 2016, it is still too early and would be completely reckless to conclude that Trump's days in the Oval Office are numbered. Continuing to manage the coronavirus crisis successfully and responsibly could change the entire picture, and Trump can still use more of the federal government's vast resources in the effort to eradicate the lethal virus and seize control, to a great extent, of the domestic and global agenda.
Hence, his image as a bold leader who thinks and works "outside the box" will determine his political fate. Yet with that, it would behoove Israeli leaders to use this period of time to tie a bow on immensely important strategic and security initiatives, such as applying sovereignty over the Jordan Valley. After all, the window of opportunity could be slammed shut on January 20, 2021.
