A recent analysis by the Ministry of Intelligence Services determined that now is the best time to implement the sovereignty initiative in parts of Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley. Additionally, ministry researchers don't expect an outbreak of violence and said relations with Arab countries will return to normal in short order.
The position paper presented to Intelligence Services Minister Eli Cohen (Likud) and obtained by Israel Hayom, presented the advantages of the initiative.
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"[The initiative] improves the starting conditions of future negotiations with the Palestinians for Israel and crystallizes the cost of Palestinian rejection of peace talks, and therefore could spur [the Palestinians] back to the negotiation table in an effort to halt additional phases," the paper said.
According to ministry analysts, international criticism of the initiative will wane after a short period of time.
"After a wave of diplomatic protests, mainly by governments, the annexation won't rouse the Arab street against the regimes. The absence of agitation in the streets will make it clear to Arab leaders that the Palestinian issue isn't a threat to them. Internalization of this insight could in the mid-term provide a platform for improving ties with Israel, without waiting for an Israeli-Palestinian arrangement," the paper concluded.
Consequently, the analysts in the Ministry of Intelligence Services believe sovereignty could, perhaps counterintuitively, compel the Palestinians to return to peace talks with Israel rather than push them further away.
"After a period in which the international system acclimates itself to annexation, the measure will prod the Palestinians and other elements in the region and the world to find solutions and arrangements that aren't affixed to the 1967 lines and primarily territorial aspects," they wrote.
As for the question of timing, the paper's recommendation is to implement sovereignty now rather than wait, because it's impossible to know how the US presidential election in November will unfold. The analysts further posited that "widespread unrest is not expected in Jordan, particularly if such unrest is absent in Judea and Samaria."
Another reason that now is the most suitable time to apply sovereignty is "the Palestinian Authority's objection to the use of violence, derived from its own existential interest."
Other reasons to implement the initiative at the present time are the "PA's low international standing due to the rift with the US; Hamas' lack of appetite for another round of fighting; the apathy of the Palestinian public in Judea and Samaria, which is mostly concerned with the troubles of day-to-day life; the world's preoccupation with the coronavirus pandemic; and the Arab public's more pressing concerns at home."
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