With Israel poised to sign historic peace agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, Arab media outlets and diplomats are wondering what Arab states will be next to normalize with Israel.
Given the message from Oman that it welcomed the Bahrainis' decision to join the normalization agreement, Arab diplomatic officials generally agree that Oman will be the next Arab nation to step up.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
However, one diplomatic official in Abu Dhabi told Israel Hayom that Oman is one of the few countries in the Persian Gulf that is currently on good terms with Iran, a position that allows it to mediate a number of disputes that have arisen between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the other Gulf states, as well as between Tehran and Washington.
"Full normalization between Oman and Israel will hurt the special relationship Oman enjoys with Iran. Oman is aware of that, and will apparently be forced to take a calculated risk," the official said.
Another Arab diplomat said that "the reason Israel and Oman have not established full relations is the possibility that Oman's relations with Iran could be severely harmed."
The same diplomat noted that one factor in Bahrain's deliberations about whether or not to join the normalization process was its fear of how Iran might respond. In Bahrain, a Sunni royal family rules over a population that is two-thirds Shiite. Iran has never hidden its position on Bahrain's sovereignty and independence.
A senior official in the Bahraini Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Israel Hayom that concerns in Bahrain about how Iran would respond to its decision to normalize with Israel were never a major part of the decision to proceed, whereas the Iranian threat to regional stability had been a major consideration in the decision to follow the UAE in making peace with Israel.
"After the United Arab Emirates agreed to normalize with Israel, with the support and encouragement of Saudi Arabia, of course, Manama realized that they could depend on support from Riyadh and Washington and join the historic agreement that will doubtless benefit all sides," an Arab diplomat close to domestic developments in Gulf states told Israel Hayom.
The diplomat said that despite the central role Saudi Arabia played in the normalization process, Arab diplomats nearly all believed that the Saudis would not normalize with Israel themselves, mostly because of their commitment to the Saudi peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians.
"The Saudis will not turn their backs on the peace initiative they conceived. Saudi Arabia will not normalize with Israel, at least not as long as King Salman is alive. After that, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman will find a way to reach a [peace] deal with Israel. Unlike his father, he is not obligated to the Palestinians," the diplomat emphasized.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
