A new poll that aired on Channel 12 News on Wednesday night projected that were elections held at this time, Likud would win 29 Knesset seats, and Naftali Bennett's Yamina party would secure 21 mandates.
Yamina has been growing steadily stronger in the polls, and it seems the national-religious faction comprising the New Right and National Union parties could pose a significant challenge for Likud come next Election Day.
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The survey, conducted by the Midgam polling institute, included 512 Israelis ages 18 and over and has a statistical margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
The data indicated that Yesh Atid would win 17 seats, followed by the Joint Arab List (15), Blue and White (9), ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party Shas (9), Yisrael Beytenu (8), Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism (7), and Meretz, with five seats.
As previous polls have shown, Labor is not expected to past the prerequisite four-Knesset-seat electoral threshold – a first for the left-wing party that has been a fixture in Israeli politics since it was founded in the 1960s.
Also falling below the electoral threshold are Gesher, Habayit Hayehudi, Derech Eretz, and the far-Right Otzma Yehudit parties.
Recent projections give the right-wing bloc 66 seats to the center-left bloc's 46. Yisrael Beytenu could join either bloc and was marked by Midgam as "undecided," but as the right-wing bloc passes the minimal, 61-MK requirement to form a government, Yisrael Beytenu no longer enjoys the status of tiebreaker, as it did in the 2019-2020 elections.
Asked if they would vote for a party led by MK Yifat Shasha-Biton – a former Kulanu lawmaker serving under the auspices of Likud now that her party has dissolved – respondents gave her a projected eight mandates.
This result gives Likud 26 seats, Yamina 19, Yesh Atid 16, and Blue and White seven seats.
Respondents were also asked who they think is to blame for Israel's climbing coronavirus morbidity: 48% pointed the finger at the public's flouting of Health Ministry directives, while 42% blamed the government.
Asked if they thought the synagogues should be closed during Yom Kippur, 60% of respondents said yes, while 32% opposed the dramatic move.
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