In the short period of time between the administration of President-elect Joe Biden and this year's election, we have seen a succession of developments. Many convictions have been put together by the presidential team. In the meantime, if the next US administration adopts the decision to return unconditionally to the nuclear deal from which the Trump administration withdrew in mid-2018, Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Israel are at great risk. The best strategic option would be to coordinate efforts and strong cooperation among all parties concerned by this danger.
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Their views must be conveyed to the next US presidential team, to make them realize the calculation of gains and losses. Certainly, the calculations are not in favor of reversing the decision to withdraw from the agreement so quickly without an integrated framework that ensures that the situation is rectified and that the gaps in the agreement in its current form are filled. GCC countries and Israel are traditional strategic allies of the US.
Regardless of the existing levels of alliance and strategic partnerships, all of these ties are considered paramount to US interests. That much makes the views of these partners seem particularly significant. They cannot be ignored if there is coordination between these parties to bring forward comprehensive and integrated solutions to the future US administration. If this is the case, the administration will not be able to ignore the demands of this group of states.
Official relations have recently been established between Israel, and the UAE and Bahrain. For other parties, there are shifting beliefs that need time and appropriate conditions.
There are good prospects for all parties seeking peace, stability, and prevention of the factors of conflict and tension that have haunted the region for decades. In any case, GCC countries should at least join any possible negotiations with the Iranian mullahs' regime and the 5+1 group.
This is analogous to the six-party nuclear talks conducted a few years ago between North Korea and the US, Russia, China, South Korea and Japan, neighbors of the DPRK. The formula is ideally suited to building a solid foundation for regional security. However, the mullahs' regime would not honor such a demand. It is not that it is unrealistic. It is because the mullah's regime looks at its geographic neighborhood with a sense of superiority. It totally rejects the real application of "par in parem non habet imperium," or equality in its relations with GCC countries.
The regime does not take into account all the changes that the past few decades have brought about, which have enabled these countries to achieve successful development and to carve out a regional and international status that places them on an equal footing, if not a better rank than that of any other regional power.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have become new regional tigers thanks to their economic leaps, making them major players in the region's equations. Israel is a strong state in various areas of development, including military. The country has struck a strong strategic alliance with all the major powers.
This is the bottom line, so that no one accuses me of bias, sympathy or other ready-made accusations that some people throw around to terrorize objective voices or blame them for successive failures in dealing with a just cause such as the Palestinian question. It is therefore reasonable, not to say necessary, to coordinate efforts.
GCC countries and Israel must have comparative advantages, leverage, and relationships of influence with the US. They must be used to transmit and defend their points of view with vim and vigor in the face of a strong tendency of the future American administration to accept an unconditional return of the nuclear deal.
And this for the simple reason that what happens in the coming period will be decisive for regional security for the foreseeable future. According to recent US media reports, President Biden's team is concerned that some Middle Eastern countries may seek to derail the nuclear deal rather than improve it.
But I don't think such fears have a place in a country as significant and influential as the US. Former President Obama had already sacrificed the anger of all of Washington's allies in the Gulf and the Middle East to sign a flawed nuclear deal with Iran.
In this sense, I read a statement that I liked from the UAE Ambassador to the US. United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States Yousef al-Otaiba stated that any agreement with Iran would affect GCC countries rather than the powers signing the agreement. This is a fact that everyone needs to deal with with some degree of clarity, openness and accountability. It is these countries that are currently suffering the consequences of the opportunistic exploitation of the loopholes in the nuclear agreement to expand and subjugate certain states in the region.
Iran's creeping influence in Yemen, Iraq and Syria and its unwarranted interference in Bahrain's internal affairs are perhaps the best evidence of the threat they face as a result of the international community's failed response to the Iranian danger.
Everyone knows that mullahs threaten Gulf neighbors and Israel whenever they are exposed to a security problem. Frequent official statements by the Iranian regime focus on threatening neighboring countries with direct and indirect military attacks, and the influence of mullah-funded and armed terrorist militias.
The security of the Gulf region and the entire Middle East has even been held hostage to the mullahs' mediocracy. The mullahs have no development project for their people and do not want peace and stability, but rather constant chaos and tension.
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Chaos provides the mullahs with the pretexts they need to distract their people from suffering and internal problems, creating external problems prolonging the life of their system which carries within it the genes of its own downfall.
The strategic reality is complex. Cooperation and coordination between GCC countries and Israel to curb the Iranian ambition and threat are required to convince President-elect Joe Biden's administration to study the situation well before signing any decision on the return of a nuclear agreement. This is a vital issue for all those seeking to ensure security in our region.
Salem al-Ketbi is an Emirati political analyst and a former candidate to the UAE's Federal National Council.
