The Middle East continues to produce headlines in a hectic pace and Sunday was no different. On the one hand, Iran announced it had resumed enriching uranium to 20% purity at its Fordo facility, and on the other hand, the Americans have reached a breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Qatar that is likely to end the three-year Gulf crisis.
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The latter was sparked in 2017, when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt severed diplomatic relations with Qatar over its ties with Iran, the world's top state-sponsor of terrorism. They were later joined by Jordan and were supported by the Maldives, Mauritania, Senegal, Djibouti, Comoros, Yemen, and the Tobruk-based government in Libya.
In all likelihood, the deal between Riyadh and Doha will be the last one brokered by the Trump administration, and while it will end the animosity between the two it will also – and more importantly – allow the moderate Gulf state to present a united front against destabilizing forces in the Middle East.
Details on the price of the deal – in aid fund or arms sales – will surely surface in the coming days and weeks, but its advantages are already clear: Qatar is a key player in the Muslim Brotherhood axis, something that has been at the heart of its dispute with its neighbors and as such, it now stands to be a major moderating factor vis-à-vis Turkey and Hamas.
Qatar is not short on reasons to pursue rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, as on top of the obvious diplomatic and economic benefits, it would also allow it the peace of mind to focus on something it holds dear – hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Doha wants to arrive at the games a winner – not a sheikdom mired in a myriad of regional conflicts.
The end of the Gulf crisis also holds and opportunity for Israel. Having inked peace deals with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, there is no reason why Jerusalem and Doha cannot do the same, as well.
Israel held an interests bureau in Doha in the past, which was manned by Foreign Ministry officials. The Mossad intelligence agency also has extensive ties in Qatar, and in fact – had it not been for its conflict with Saudi Arabia, Doah would have probably already boarded the peace train.
Rapprochement with Qatar will also advance peace deals with other Gulf states, chief among them Saudi Arabia. Israel still believes that the Saudis would prefer to wait for the Biden administration, and with 15 days to go, it is hard to believe that the Trump administration would be able to announce an Israeli-Saudi accord.
This tight window of opportunity is one Iran is also watching, especially given Monday's announcement about Fordo, which constitutes the most significant violation of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran's move may cut its path to a bomb, but it is still a long way from having a nuclear weapon. It is likely that Iran is not seeking to make a mad nuclear dash at this point, rather to accumulate assets ahead of the new nuclear negotiations with the Biden administration.
This is, in fact, a classic "somebody stop me" warning to Washington, signaling that progress better be made if the international community hopes to slow Iran's nuclear pursuits.
Iran will gladly relinquish enriching uranium to 20% purity in favor of a nuclear pact that would lift the crippling economic sanctions off the Islamic republic.
Tehran has likely been waiting with this move to make sure Trump was in his last days in office, and will not be able to mount a military response.
This is exactly the Iranian weakness that Israel needs to exploit: we need to make it clear to the Biden administration that Iran is violating every understanding and every agreement, and playing not just with fire, but with weapons of mass destruction.
Israel must also have an available and reliable military option, and make it clear to the Americans that it is ready to use it. Unlike the 2015 agreement, this time Israel will not really stand alone – its new friends in the Gulf will stand by it. In this respect, the agreement with Qatar is excellent news for the "good guys" and a little less of good news for Tehran.
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