A mere two and a half weeks into US President Joe Biden's term, it seems that a clash between his administration and Israel is inevitable.
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The president has called several world leaders, but not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Even during his first foreign policy speech on Thursday, he only briefly mentioned Israel.
The president and his advisors are confident that renewing the Iranian nuclear agreement will bring about new negotiations with Tehran, which, in the words of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, will lead to a "longer and stronger agreement."
Israel's professional and political experts, however, explain that the American approach is unrealistic. Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, the National Security Council, the Mossad, and the Foreign Ministry are all convinced that the moment the US government removes the "paralyzing sanctions" that the Trump administration imposed on the Iranian regime, it will lose its leverage to reach another agreement.
Let's not forget that even the original Iranian nuclear agreement reached by former US President Barack Obama, with all its shortcomings, did not come about through the good will of Iranians, rather it was reached after six years of harsh international sanctions on Iran.
Civilian experts are almost all of the same opinion: removing the sanctions and returning to a nuclear deal will plunge the Middle East into war. The Bitchonistim defense and security forum, comprised of former high-ranking defense and security officials, has drafted a policy recommendation letter and sent it to every influential person in the US.
"A partial and lacking agreement can achieve the opposite of the desired goal, leading the region once again to instability, a race for nuclear arms and ultimately, war," the letter said.
"In our opinion, not enough time has gone by to achieve the goals that were set [by the Trump administration], the strategy of 'maximum pressure' has been so effective that it reached significant achievements in the last two years.
"With the sanctions in place, the regime is willing to negotiate with far more significant compromises, which would not be the case if it weren't for the pressure. Therefore the negotiations of a new deal with Iran should take place while pressure on them is still being imposed," the letter read.
The Institute for National Security Studies expressed a similar opinion.
The only institution that justifies an immediate return to the nuclear deal is the US-based J Street advocacy group. "Iran is on the path to uranium enrichment at a dangerous pace. Trump's pressure has not brought about a change in Iranian policy. Quite the opposite. There is no choice but to return to the diplomatic framework," Nadav Tamir, J Street's Israel Executive Director, said.
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