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Home Commentary

Can Turkey mediate a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas?

Egypt wants to help, but it has lost some of its leverage on the Gaza-based terrorist organization. Turkey, in the meanwhile, is influential on Hamas and in Gaza, and like Israel, fears a nuclearized Iran.

by  Dean Shmuel Elmas
Published on  04-16-2021 10:00
Last modified: 04-16-2021 10:00
Can Turkey mediate a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas?Dudu Grunshpan

The faces of Staff Sgt. Oron Shaul, Avera Mengistu, and Lt. Hadar Goldin appear above the words "We are no longer silent. .Bring them home!" | File photo: Dudu Grunshpan

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Israel's celebration of its 73rd Independence Day on Thursday was incomplete due to the ongoing, painful affair of the missing fallen soldiers and Israeli captives still being held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

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Lt. Hadar Goldin and Staff Sgt. Oron Shaul were both killed in Operation Protective Edge in Gaza in the summer of 2014, and their remains were abducted by Hamas. By April 2015, two Israeli citizens, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, had also fallen into Hamas' clutches after crossing the Gaza border fence.

Talks thus far to negotiate their release have failed. What approach could Israel take that would result in a breakthrough and the return of the live captives and the fallen soldiers' bodies?

Israel's missing civilians and fallen soldiers in Gaza, clockwise from top left: Oron Shaul, Hadar Goldin, Avera Mengistu, and Hisham al-Sayed (AFP, Reuters) AFP, Reuters

In October 2011, Egyptian and German mediators brought an end to the abduction of IDF soldier Gilad Schalit, with Hamas agreeing to free the captive in exchange for Israel letting 1,027 Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists out of prison. Schalit had been captive for five years and five months. Regardless of whether Israel should or should not have paid that price, Jerusalem owes the credit for it to Cairo. It appears very likely that without the Egyptians' help, the deal would never have been made. Meanwhile, in three months' time, Israel might find itself marking seven years since Goldin and Shaul's remains have been held by Hamas.

The Egyptians truly want to help, but their efforts so far have been unsuccessful. It is possible that regional developments of the past 10 years since the Schalit deal have seen Egypt lose some of its leverage on Hamas. But there is another country that could be more effective in pressuring Hamas – Turkey.

Many senior Hamas officials are currently living in Istanbul, and Turkey is investing considerably in the Gaza Strip, and providing health aid during COVID. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also enjoys a good relationship with head of the Hamas politburo, Ismail Haniyeh. Aside from that, unlike Egypt, Turkey – in an attempt to end its isolation in the Mediterranean region – is interested in normalizing ties with Israel and is even willing to exchange ambassadors again, as Israel Hayom reported.

There have also been a number of events and processes involving Turkey which indicate that Erdogan and his people have no problem exerting force when it is in Ankara's interest to do so. We saw one example of this when, attempting to normalize with Cairo, they ordered media channels (Al-Sharq, Watan, and Makamalin) identified with the Muslim Brotherhood to stop criticizing Egypt.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan has no problem employing force when it is in Ankara's interest (AFP, file) AFP

Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke to Erdogan by phone on Wednesday, claiming that opening the gates of the region to Israel was "a dangerous step" that must be opposed and fought. Erdogan responded by changing the subject, for two reasons. One, he wants to normalize with Israel. Two, he sees a nuclear Iran as a threat to Turkey. Indeed, a Turkish soldier was killed only Wednesday in a rocket attack that pro-Iranian militias in northern Iraq carried out against a Turkish military base.

As far as the Palestinians go, they are slated to hold legislative elections on May 22, unless Israel or Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas cancels them. Hamas needs a major achievement that would drive up its popularity when it counts. The matter of Palestinian security prisoners is a sensitive one in both the West Bank and Gaza.

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Therefore, it's time for Israel to act swiftly and determinedly to maximize this window of opportunity in a creative manner and send in Turkey to mediate with Hamas and demand that it exert leverage against the senior Hamas personnel in Istanbul if it wants to exchange ambassadors with Israel. Linking that step to Hamas' need to carry out a significant action that can benefit it at the polls might lead to a breakthrough that will bring Israel's captives in Gaza home.

Tags: Gaza StripHamasIsraeli captivesIsraeli fallen soldiersMIAsPOWs

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