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Home Analysis

Pretend ambiguity is useless

Israel's desire to maintain ambiguity with regards to any operations meant to counter its enemies is understandable, but it also has distinct disadvantages.   

by  Prof. Eyal Zisser
Published on  04-19-2021 15:12
Last modified: 11-05-2021 11:19
Pretend ambiguity is useless

An exterior view of the nuclear enrichment plant of Natanz (EPA/Abedin Taherkenareh)

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One can criticize the Israeli government's policy on Iran but not without presenting an alternative – other than sitting idly by and hoping the Iranian threat simply blows over or that the US will deal with it for us.

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One should also admit that Israel's policy over the past few decades has been able to significantly delay Iran's nuclear aspirations, as well as prevent it from entrenching itself militarily in Syria, albeit not stop it completely. Still, Iran is about 20 years away from where it wanted to be in terms of its nuclear program and it has been stuck in the Syrian quagmire for about a decade.

All this has been done while avoiding a full-blown conflict, the likes of which the critics warn about.

Now, a new argument is making the rounds: the government is undercutting its own policy of ambiguity by "bragging" about its counter-Iran operations, thus goading the Islamic republic to respond.

Ambiguity may exist in Israeli media, which operates under restrictions imposed by the Military Censor, or for those who have yet to learn how to read between the lines, but the concept of ambiguity has never existed for Tehran, Beirut or Damascus.    

The fact of the matter is that no matter what happens, the Iranians and the Syrians point a finger at Israel. Not for nothing but is the Americans who often leak information to the media about Israel's involvement in strikes in the region, so as to ward off threat to US troops deployed in the Middle East.

Israel's reasons for downplaying its operations deep behind enemy lines are obvious. It has no interest in playing into any media frenzy that could tip the enemy off as to its own vulnerabilities vis-à-vis Israel's capabilities.

Another reasons is most likely the desire to avoid painting the Syrians or the Iranians into a corner, thus forcing them to react.

However, these considerations, which were imperative when Israel was fighting the exist of evil two decades ago, may no longer be as relevant given that much of the "campaign between the wars" – the ongoing strategic Israeli military and intelligence effort to disrupt the force build-up of the Iranian-Shiite axis throughout the Middle East – is no longer clandestine.

Ambiguity is also very important from a diplomatic standpoint by way of sparing Israel international criticism and condemnations in world bodies. One must also remember that assuming responsibility to any incident can result in more than an escalation in rhetoric.

Still, it wasn't ambiguity that prevented Syrian President Bashar Assad from retaliating after the 2007 strike on his nuclear reactor, nor was it ambiguity that dissuaded Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from reacting to the 2008 assassination of his top commander, Imad Mughniyeh, both of which were attributed to Israel.

What stopped them at the time and stops Iran at the present day is the deterrence generated by Israel and its operational and intelligence-gathering superiority, which limit the enemy's ability to respond.

Precisely because of this, the recent allegations in the Israeli media, as if the government is provoking unnecessary escalations vis-à-vis Iran, are far from being true.

Firstly, state leaders are allowed to bolster the public, which is exposed to Tehran's threats of annihilation daily. Secondly only in Israel are policies set according to media headlines and also go to war because of them. Tehran and Beirut, on the other hand, carefully monitor the situation all while examining the balance of power. They understand Israel's red lines are try not to cross them.

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