It has been 40 years since Israel bombed the nuclear reactor in Iraq. Even the most optimistic of Israeli leaders could not have imagined that Iraq would never try to pursue this project again.
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Operation Opera, as the historic mission is known, was a message from Israel to the nations that seek to destroy it: The Jewish state will not allow them to lay their hands on a nuclear bomb. Israel made good on that promise when it took out the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007.
Israel has sounded the same message regarding Tehran's 15-year march toward the bomb, but things are more complicated when it comes to Iran. The Islamic republic's nuclear sites are spread out, and some are situated deep inside mountains or surrounded by sophisticated air defense systems.
Moreover, contrary to Iraq and Syria, Tehran knows that Jerusalem is taking steps for a potential strike; it will not be caught off guard.
According to foreign media, the Mossad has in recent years carried out a series of operations to stall the regime's nuclear program, including seizing nuclear archives, targeting the Natanz nuclear reactor, and assassinating "the father of the Iranian nuclear bomb," Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
Such actions may stall Iran's nuclear program but won't end it, and the challenges are not just operational, they are also diplomatic.
The Biden administration is convinced that the only way to keep Iran in check is through diplomacy, but Israel says it won't be bound by any deal with Tehran. Just last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would continue to deny Iran nuclear weapons even if that created friction with "our greatest friend: the United States." But it's safe to assume that the US' position will carry significant weight in any course of action Israel takes on Iran.
Israel has refused to hold talks on what it might get from the US if the nuclear deal is revived, for fear that this my come across as implicit endorsement. Nor is there talk on any side deal with the US in which the latter would pledge to bring Iran's nuclear program to a halt if all diplomatic efforts fail.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, one of the eight pilots who carried out the airstrike on the Iraqi nuclear reactor in F-16A warplanes, believes that "a military attack on Iran is not the only option" and that it is "definitely not the time" to bomb Iran.
According to Yadlin, since the US is determined to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, "Israel must strike a separate agreement with the US that would address the question of what happens if all diplomatic efforts were to fail. Israel needs to reach an agreement with the US as to who would be responsible for stopping the Iranian program, how it would be stopped and when it would be right to act."
Still, he warned that "the Israeli Air Force and other agencies must continue to prepare for a military option in case all else fails."
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