Israeli officials are growing increasingly concerned that the United States and the West will try reaching a partial agreement with Iran that would be even more limited than the original nuclear deal signed in 2015.
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One of the scenarios presented in briefings on the matter in recent days is that the Biden administration will suffice with a deal that includes just two components: removal of international sanctions currently imposed on Iran, in exchange solely for the cessation of uranium enrichment.
'The most urgent matter'
Such an outline would mean, among other things, that Iran's advanced infrastructure for enriching uranium would not be dismantled, the 25 kilograms of uranium that Iran has already enriched to 60% in violation of the original deal would remain untouched, and that Iran's nuclear program in general or its regional belligerence would not be addressed. A narrow agreement of this sort would also contravene the assurances previously issued by the US administration to reach a "stronger and longer-term" deal than the original.
The belief that the West will attempt to secure a limited deal with Iran is predicated on messages that have recently been delivered to Jerusalem, whereby "Before anything else, Iran's enrichment dash must be stopped. This is the most urgent matter."
Israel is deeply divided with the Americans over their insistence on reaching a deal with Iran at any cost. In a symbolic act of this Israeli opposition, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will not meet with US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley, who was expected to arrive in Israel on Sunday. Malley is spearheading the Biden administration's conciliatory approach toward the ayatollah regime, and recently stated that "the diplomatic window with Iran will never be closed."
Malley will be in Israel for two days, after which he will visit other countries in the region. He will meet with senior officials from the National Security Council, Foreign Ministry, and the intelligence community, but, as stated, not with Bennett.
One Israeli official told Israel Hayom that "Israel doesn't want to be perceived in any way as legitimizing the renewal of talks with Iran [in Vienna] later this month."
In the meantime, the director of Iran's state-owned news outlet Islamic Republic News Agency, Ali Naderi, tweeted on Friday Iranian assets worth over $3.5 billion of blocked Iranian assets have been unfrozen in recent weeks by one of the countries holding them, without naming the country. A "significant portion" of the now unblocked resources were already entering Iran's trade cycle, he added.
Not pinning hopes
As a reminder, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said his country was demanding the release of $10 billion before nuclear negotiation begin again. Pundits in the West believe that unfreezing the funds catalyzed Iran's decision to resume talks with global powers.
Iran and the P5+1 – the UN Security Council's five permanent members; namely China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States; plus Germany – are slated to resume talks in Vienna in two weeks. As reported by Israel Hayom, the overriding belief among Israeli diplomatic and defense officials is that Iran's agreement to renew negotiations was meant to buy time, and that the ayatollah regime has no intention of reaching a new deal or returning to the original 2015 deal.
Israeli officials know that if it were up to the US a deal would have been signed already, almost unconditionally, and that Iranian obstinacy has been the only impediment to progress. Hence they aren't pinning too much hope on the discussions with Malley.
Between 2015 and 2022
Bennett's position, which he conveyed to world leaders at the UN climate conference earlier this month, is that returning to nuclear negotiations is a fundamental mistake.
The premier's assessment is based on professional estimations and analyses that in light of Iran's very significant nuclear progress, it's highly doubtful that the conditions stipulated in the 2015 deal are still relevant in 2022.
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