The Israeli Air Force intercepted two drones carrying military equipment and launched from Iran toward the Gaza Strip. The incident, which took place last year, has only now been cleared for publication.
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For a few years now, Iran has sought to bypass the tight blockade on Gaza and smuggle in advanced capabilities that would allow terrorist organizations in the coastal enclave to strike Israel more effectively. Nearly all such attempts made on land have been thwarted by Israel and Egypt, and the marine route is almost entirely cut off.
The drones that were launched were aimed at testing out a new and unexpected route. Their flight also appears to have been an exploratory mission as the number of weapons they were carrying at the time was negligible. Flying at low altitudes, the drones were meant to leave the weapons they were carrying in Gaza. From there, they were apparently meant to fly back to Iran. Fighter jets intercepted the drones before they were able to cross into Israeli territory.
The highly unusual incident was kept under wraps up until recently due to sensitivities toward a plethora of elements in the region but also attempts to examine the Iranian response to the drones' disappearance and failure to reach their destination.
The decision to allow the incident to be made public appears to stem from, among other things, the renewed signing of a nuclear deal with Iran, which is expected to happen shortly in Vienna. The assessment is that following the signing, Tehran will feel freer to act against Israel and will act far more aggressively than in the past. Jerusalem wants to send the Islamic Republic the message that it has been exposed and that all its attempts will be intercepted and met with a severe response.
In recent years, Iran has ramped up its use of various kinds of drones, and with a series of tools developed at home to travel long distances and carry increasingly heavy loads, has in practice become a global leader in the field. Some of these drones are aimed at exploding on target, while others collect intelligence for the Iranians and their emissaries.
We see almost daily evidence of this from the Houthis in Yemen, who frequently attack Saudi Arabia, and lately also the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, where local Shiite militias have carried out numerous attacks on US forces and local targets, including the attempted assassination of the Iraqi Prime Minister inside his home.
Likewise, Iran transfers advanced drones to Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias that operate under its auspices in Syria, where Iran launched a number of direct attacks against Israel, all of which were intercepted. The first noteworthy event took place in February 2018, when an Iranian drone launched from Syria was intercepted by an attack helicopter in the Golan Heights.
While Iran has generally tried to carry out these kinds of actions indirectly, there have been some exceptions. In September 2019, it launched dozens of armed drones toward Saudi Aramco facilities, which were sustained serious damage in the attack. Iran may have denied any connection to the attack – the Houthis in Yemen took responsibility – but intelligence information tied it directly to the attack and even pointed a finger at those responsible: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, under the command of Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who in recent years, has become one of the most dominant and dangerous figures in Iran.
Two weeks ago, two drones, which were also launched from Iran, were intercepted in Iraq. Although there has been no official confirmation, their target appears to have been Israel. The launch may have been carried out as part of an Iranian attempt to strike Israel and exact revenge for a series of blows to Iranian interests attributed to Israel, chief among them the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh around 18 months ago as well as ongoing attacks on Iranian weapons convoys in Syria.
The flooding of the region with drones poses a new challenge to the aerial defense system. It's a different and sometimes more challenging threat to that of missiles and rockets due to the different flight profiles, the altitude, and the precision abilities of the drones. The air force has been preparing for this for some time, and the assessment is that Iran will try to challenge Israel in a variety of ways – including launches from its territory, from Iraq, and from Yemen, as well as through provocations from Syria and Lebanon. We saw evidence of the latter two weeks ago when a Hezbollah quadcopter entered Israeli airspace and managed to slip back into Lebanon without being intercepted. Hezbollah may have tried to deter Israel from continuing its flights through Lebanese skies with the incident, but the organization is expected to ramp up its activity in the field.
In a statement, an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson said: "Over the course of March 2021, the IDF intercepted two drones on their way from Iran to the State of Israel's territory with 'Adir' [F-35] fighter jets. The drones' interception was carried out in the region's skies through coordination with neighboring countries and thereby avoided penetration into Israel. The drones were monitored by control and detection systems throughout their flight."
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