The past weekend has been relatively calm in Judea and Samaria for two reasons: Israel's offensive posture, especially in Nablus; and the reinforcement of troops inside Israel, especially in the Jerusalem area.
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The offensive posture is designed to counter the "Lions' Den" terrorist group that has out of thin air become the leading threat to Israelis in the West Bank. Although the IDF has continued to engage in counterterrorism operations in the Jenin Refugee Camp, the main focus is on Nablus, because if that city descends into chaos the entire Palestinian Authority could buckle.
The Lions' Den became a strong force thanks to TikTok, and it has gotten funding from Hamas because of the attacks it has waged. It has also received glory among Palestinians by and large, and it showed this strength when it called for a day of rage in Jerusalem earlier in October, which saw 24 hours of violent confrontations. This prompted Israel to make it clear to the PA that it expects tougher action against the group. The IDF has also imposed more restrictions on the movement of Palestinian civilians, with the hope this would result in internal pressure on the gang.
The efforts have become somewhat successful, with roughly 10 Lions' Den members already handing over their arms to the PA in exchange for a promise that they would join its security forces. Israel has already made it clear that it would not grant such recruits immunity if it turns out that they have been involved in terrorist attacks, but it has so far stopped short of acting against them. The main focus is on using actionable intelligence to arrest the 25-30 gang members who have not laid down their weapons.
Israel has also managed to get the group's TikTok account suspended, potentially striking a major blow to the organization because of its online dependence on bolstering its image, filling its coffers, and getting more recruits. This would also make it easier for the PA to restrain its members.
The second part of Israel's operations over the weekend is the bolstering of troops in Jerusalem, with several Border Guard units being called up from reserves to help deal with the riots in the Arab neighborhoods. The main challenge comes this week, as Israelis celebrate the final days of the Feast of the Tabernacles (Sukkot) and with many expecting to reach the Temple Mount. Although the Friday prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque were relatively calm, a senior Israeli security official has warned that "the current combustibility on the ground could have any small incident explode into a widespread conflagration in Jerusalem and the West Bank."
Israel will shut down crossings from Judea and Samaria until Sukkot ends on Monday night. The official said that once the holiday is over things will calm down, but the high alert will continue until the Nov. 1 election and beyond because of the increase in chatter on plotted terrorist attacks. The official also warned that right-wing Israeli extremists might also cause things to deteriorate if they wage revenge attacks on Palestinians.
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