Israel Hayom can exclusively report that the IDF Intelligence Directorate will likely advise the political echelon to take a proactive stance on Iran by proposing a new Iran nuclear deal that would replace the one that has unraveled, amid growing concern among Israeli officials over the Islamic republic's accelerated pace in its nuclear program.
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Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran is already at the point where it could easily reach military-grade uranium enrichment levels of 90% purity and obtain the necessary quantities for a bomb within several weeks. Although the actual assembly of a bomb could take another two years, but the current state of affairs means that Iran is, for all intents and purposes, a threshold state with capability and know-how that cannot be rolled back without a deal.
The lesser of two evils
The concern over Iran's rapid enrichment to high purity levels and the amassing of fissile material was the reason why the Biden administration's launched its efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, promising that under its new format it would be a longer and stronger agreement than the one reached by the Obama administration and from which the Trump administration pulled out of. The administration, however, later abandoned that effort in the hopes of just restoring the 2015 deal as is.
Ultimately it was Iran's intransigence that torpedoed Biden's efforts, because it refused to provide answers to the International Atomic Energy Agency on the various probes surrounding undeclared nuclear sites and traces of uranium. Israeli officials have since been split over the merits of restoring the original deal. The Mossad, which is tasked with tackling the Iranian threat, has been adamantly against such a restoration, saying that a deal would only be worth it if it kept Iran from a nuclear bomb for the very long haul and if it gets amended to include provisions addressing Iran's terrorist activities. The IDF directorate, meanwhile, has long held the view that the 2015 deal is the lesser of two evils and preferable to having Iran free from any scrutiny and able to break toward a bomb at any moment.
The deal is not being enforced
Israel's political leadership, first under Naftali Bennett and then under Prime Minister Yair Lapid, sided with the Mossad, although the actual debate had little bearing on reality, since the nuclear talks have recently collapsed and just recently President Joe Biden said that the deal was "dead" in a leaked recording. The deal is technically still in effect because only the US has withdrawn, but in 2019, a year after the US decision, Iran started breaching its provisions and has since advanced significantly in its enrichment program by accumulating massive amounts of enriched uranium, installing advanced centrifuges and operating them in the underground facility in Fordow that can potentially withstand aerial strikes.
Israel's concern over this development has led to military contingencies picking up steam. The IDF devised three different courses of action, but the possibility that they would be exercised militarily is low for several reasons: Their unclear chances of success; the possibility that Iran would soon after a strike restore its capabilities with international backing; and the assessment that such an attack would trigger large-scale regional hostilities, with Hezbollah and Palestinian groups joining the flare-up.
Concessions in exchange for relief
As a result, some in the intelligence community think it would be wise to change the dynamics and promote a new nuclear deal. This, they say, should include an international coalition that would reach a deal under the formula "more for more": The more concessions Iran makes – i.e. in terms of the "sunset clauses" or the degree to which it would give up its material and know-how, and so forth – the greater sanction relief it would get. The IDF intelligence Directorate believes that the Biden administration (as well as the Europeans) would be on board for this, in part because the US has vowed not to let Iran obtain a nuclear weapon but also because the president wants to have this issue sorted out so he can move on to other matters on the global and domestic front.
The main obstacle is the deep mistrust between Washington and Tehran. Iran fears that if a new US administration takes office in 2025, it might once again withdraw from any new deal. Another Iranian concern surrounds the ongoing unrest known as the Hijab Protest that began in September. Iran has expressed concern that the US would lift the nuclear-related sanctions only to re-impose them over human rights concerns.
The West doesn't have a ready-made solution
Israeli officials believe that without another deal Iran will be at a dangerous position and the West would not know how to counter it with a readily available solution. The IDF Intelligence Directorate has noted that the Ukraine war has "normalized" the discourse on Iran's nuclearization and made it clear that countries that have nuclear weapons cannot be defeated.
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While Iran has yet to turn these lessons into a concrete plan of action, it might do so if it feels pressured, or alternatively, free from constraints. That's why the IDF is expected to recommend to the new government that it start drafting various plans to avert the possibility that Iran might break toward a bomb, and one of those should be drafting a new agreement on Israel's terms. It is unclear how Benjamin Netanyahu, who is set to become prime minister on Thursday, will respond to such advice and how he will interact on this matter with the Biden administration and Western governments. But the directorate holds the view that this should be a major focus of the incoming government, in part because it has potential ramifications on a whole host of related matters in the Middle East, including regional stability.
