Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' announcement to freeze the security operation with Israel could be bad news as it could lead to an increase in terrorism, forcing the IDF to expand operations in the region further.
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On Thursday, another battalion was sent to the sector, joining the Yamam counter-terrorism unit and the Shin Bet security agency in the Jenin refugee camp, in clashes that resulted in the deaths of nine Palestinians, including terrorists.
The IDF said that it was a one-off temporary reinforcement, but if the security coordination does cease, it will be required to increase activity on the ground to make up for activities carried out by the Palestinian security mechanisms – from the arrest of "minor" wanted persons to oversight of various civil events, such as demonstrations that might overflow into clashes with Israeli forces.
Abbas has threatened in the past to sever the security coordination with Israel, but did so only once, after the declaration by then-President Donald Trump of "the deal of the century," which included US consent to the annexation of part of the West Bank territories by Israel. The change lasted for several months, during which Israel had to increase its activity in Judea and Samaria.
The Palestinians agreed to reinstate the security coordination, among other things, out of fear that Hamas would take advantage of the power vacuum created and strengthen its position in the West Bank. They are likely to do the same this time with the understanding that the coordination serves the security interests of both parties.
Abbas' move stems from the fact that the PA is under great internal criticism in view of the intense Israeli activity, which has claimed approximately 30 lives since the beginning of the month (and 150 last year). The IDF tries its best to minimize the number of casualties, but they are often required to act aggressively in the face of live fire resistance from terrorists, especially in northern Samaria.
That was the case in Jenin on Thursday. The target was valuable – an armed cell of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad that had already carried out several terror attacks in the area and was planning to carry out more – although the fact that the raid was carried out at daytime when the refugee camp was in full operation, certainly contributed to the intensity of the resistance and the number of casualties.
It is doubtful whether, in the situation that developed in the field, this outcome could have been avoided. The security system should, however, examine in internal investigations that it will carry out whether anything could have been done to minimize the number of casualties, with the understanding that a high casualty rate leads to further unrest in the field and increases the risk of additional attacks and escalation.
The PIJ has already threatened to retaliate for the killings and launched several rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel early Friday morning. In recent months, the group has been putting a special effort into recruiting activists and carrying out terror attacks, directed and financed by Iran. However, it is now under heavy pressure to respond from both field operatives and the leadership in Damascus.
If the current events lead to an all-out escalation in the South and in Judea and Samaria, the reality on the ground does not bode well. In the past year, there has been a continuous increase in violence in the Palestinian territories, which may worsen in the run-up to Ramadan this coming March. This requires Israel to increase its security-political activities vis-à-vis all the parties in the Palestinian arena – not an easy task considering the composition and plans of the new government.
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