The decision made during Shabbat to deploy reinforcements in Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem was a necessary step: The volatile Palestinian arena is now on the verge of exploding. What is really required now is a combination of the judicious employment of forces, restraint and diplomatic moves, and of course – luck as well, to curb the current escalation.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
This challenge is the current political hot potato that the new government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must deal with. Barely one month after its establishment, the government is facing a highly complex and volatile security challenge. The immediate concern is of a renewed wave of lone-wolf attacks to be perpetrated by various individuals seeking to imitate the success of those who carried out the terrorist attacks in Jerusalem, and this of course is in addition to the constant threat of terrorist attacks directed by the Palestinian terrorist organizations.
Together with the constant brainwashing on social media (which definitely had an impact on the last two perpetrators of the recent terrorist attacks) and the ineptitude of the Palestinian security forces – mainly in northern Samaria – a complex, concerted diplomatic-security effort is now needed requiring an extremely steady hand at the helm of the Israeli leadership. Netanyahu has already endured a number of similar rounds of violence in the past, so he is usually careful not to adopt any draconian or hasty actions. The security establishment, too, is characterized by composure, though the heads of two of its three component pillars – Minister of Defense Yoav Galant, and the IDF Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, are extremely new appointments, alongside the head of the Israel Security Agency, better known as Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, who has been in office for just over a year.
It all depends on where you stand
Serving alongside them in the cabinet there is currently a whole series of ministers with a record of extremist outbursts, who may well now demand more extensive measures to restore security. Topping the list, of course, is National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who found himself on Friday night no longer on the side of those blaming others for weakness costing lives, but for the first time as the person responsible for dealing with the harsh results and who would now have to deliver on his promises.
We can assume that Ben-Gvir, alongside his new cabinet colleagues, now understands the limitations of using force. Even when there are strong indications and warnings (and they are strong) and the intelligence is solid (and it is solid), there will always be loopholes and terrorists will thus be able to slip under the radar. This is the permanent frustration of the war on terror, in which a 99% success rate in countering terrorist attacks will never be able to compensate for the intense feeling of pain and of missed opportunity inherent in the inability to curb a specific attack that does succeed in taking its toll.
The calls voiced during the weekend for the IDF to embark on an extensive operation in Judea and Samaria show a complete lack of understanding of the situation on the ground. Israel operates freely in Judea and Samaria and is not afraid to use force there, whenever necessary. The statistics – 150 Palestinian dead in 2022 and a further 30 since the beginning of 2023 (including nine during the operation led by the Israel Police National Counter Terror Unit in Jenin last Thursday) – provide a daily testimony to the situation in which Israel is accused by the Palestinians and various international bodies of using too much force, which they claim is the cause of the escalation.
In Jerusalem, where the two terrorist attacks were perpetrated on the weekend, the situation is even more complicated. The hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who reside in the city possess Israeli ID cards, granting them full freedom of movement. The Israeli security forces' ability to act against them is limited, and this has wide-reaching implications on the economy, employment, and tourism in the capital (and of course – on the myth of Jerusalem being a unified city). Just as is the case in Judea and Samaria, the security effort in Jerusalem must be intelligence-based and combined with an effort to saturate the area with forces – both so that any would-be terrorists will necessarily have to confront soldiers or policemen rather than civilians, and of course in addition, so that there is a ready and available, trained response force in every sector.
It worked in 2015
A similar operational-intelligence effort was a key component that eventually led to the curbing of the wave of lone-wolf attacks in 2015-16. This was accompanied at the time by a diplomatic effort too, just as is needed now. It is safe to assume that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is due to visit Israel Monday, will seek to ensure that Israel does not lose its cool, but Israel really does need to gain his assistance in stopping the Palestinian move to suspend security coordination, as the head of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas, announced on Thursday.
Israel's security coordination with the Palestinians is of considerable importance, not only as it prevents friction between Israelis and Palestinians: but the very fact that there are security-related ties between the sides is in itself a fixed restraining factor, that has a positive impact on any potential escalation. Jordan and Egypt, too, have an important role to play in preventing escalation at this point in time. Amman can provide significant input by exercising its influence over the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria, while Cairo has access to its own diplomatic channels to engage Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Regional coordination
Netanyahu's meeting last week with King Abdullah of Jordan – following several years of a lack of communication between them – may serve as an opening for productive coordination, which could be critical too in relation to the highly volatile issue of the Temple Mount, on the eve of the upcoming month of Ramadan. Egypt will be required to keep Hamas from entering the fray. The Islamic movement may currently be curbing any escalation originating from Gaza (and on Thursday took pains to ensure that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) should be the one to provide a limited response to the death of its men in Jenin), is involved in a constant effort to ignite popular foment in Judea and Samaria, including financing attacks and directing them.
A combination of all these efforts over time will enable Israel to check the current wave of violence without risking an all-out eruption among the Palestinian population. Other moves, which might be perceived as being too aggressive, not only are they unlikely to deliver the goods but might actually lead to the scenario that both the Shin Bet and IDF Military Intelligence have been warning about in recent years: a widespread confrontation within the Palestinian arena.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
