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The war has already made 1 thing clear: Israel is not fully independent

Reducing dependence admittedly sounds like an unrealistic goal now, but so did talk about canceling the annual US civilian aid to Israel, which was gradually eliminated per Israel's decision. This too won't happen overnight and will take years, but it's the right path.

by  Nadav Shragai
Published on  12-11-2023 22:50
Last modified: 12-11-2023 23:02
THE LATEST: IDF ready for ground maneuver; intense airstrikes on Gaza overnight; more Hezbollah targets taken outAP/Evan Vucci

President Joe Biden is greeted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after arriving at Ben Gurion International Airport, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023, in Tel Aviv | Photo: AP/Evan Vucci

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Many issues will need to be reevaluated after the war. One of them, which is barely discussed now, is Israel's almost total dependence on the US, both militarily and politically, as has become abundantly clear during the fighting.

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The most striking manifestation of this symbiotic relationship was the unprecedented participation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Israeli War Cabinet meetings.

The huge benefits of having American support and backing are clear: $4 billion in annual military aid; constant supply of ammunition during combat; and international backing against hostile countries and organizations like Iran, Russia, and the UN.

Less discussed are the downsides: Israel is limited and not free to act as it sees fit, neither during the war nor the day after.

The dependence is all around – from relatively simple munitions like artillery shells and aerial bombs that Israel does not produce enough of to much more sophisticated weapon systems.

Video: Hamas terrorists captured by the IDF

It is not possible, nor probably advisable, to completely detach from this dependence, but we should strive to minimize it to the lowest degree possible.

About two years ago, this issue became a source of scrutiny within the inner circles of Israel's political and security establishments. An initial memo was written and submitted to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the deep social strife in Israel on the judicial reform nipped this process in the bud.

Today there are many more people who have come to the conclusion that Israel must prepare for the day ties there is a significant cooling in relations with the US. This could happen if, for example, a progressive president wins the White House; or if the US makes demands we will not be able to live with, like dividing Jerusalem, withdrawing from the Golan Heights, or uprooting settlements or placing significant restrictions on vital military operations. This also means preparing for a scenario where the US can no longer afford to give Israel aid at current levels.

Reducing dependence admittedly sounds like an unrealistic goal now, but so did talk about canceling the annual US civilian aid to Israel, which was gradually eliminated per Israel's decision. This too won't happen overnight and will take years, but it's the right path.

For example, our local defense industries need to gradually detach from contractual limitations that Israel is committed to per agreements with the US, so they could independently develop more types of weapons, as the famous Jewish saying goes: "If I am not for myself, who will be for me?"

In 1982, then-US Secretary of State General (ret.) Alexander Haig, defined Israel as the largest "American aircraft carrier in the world that cannot be sunk, does not carry even one American soldier, and is located in a critical region for American national security."

And indeed, the US also profits from ties with us (even if is not dependent on us). Israel serves as a laboratory for many security developments under real combat conditions, testing aircraft, tanks, missiles, and additional armaments. The chiefs of the US aerospace industry once said that no less than 700 upgrades were added to the F-16 fighter jet following Israeli advice and experience. When this is translated into dollars and time, the costs saved are estimated at many years of research and billions of dollars.

Dependence on the US won't disappear, certainly not in the near future, but work towards minimizing it can and should begin today already, so that in the future Israel will have a much larger maneuvering room to act independently.

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