While Israel has carried out targeted assassinations against senior Hezbollah operatives over the past seven months, the pro-Iranian terror organization's Radwan force has maintained its operational capabilities largely unimpaired, according to expert analysis.
According to Tal Beeri from the Alma Research and Education Center, a think tank focused on Israel's security challenges along its northern border, the elite unit still retains the capacity to launch an invasion into northern Israel with up to 200 fighters at any given time, if orders are issued.
This sobering assessment stands in contrast to recent statements from Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who boasted last month of degrading Hezbollah's command structure in southern Lebanon. However, this week he did already acknowledge that the "mission" against Hezbollah was incomplete, warning of a potential "hot summer" ahead.
Speaking at a conference organized by Alma last week, Beeri said that while hundreds of Hezbollah operatives have been killed, including senior Radwan force commander Wissam al-Tawil, the unit's overall potency remains undiminished.
Beeri assessed that Hezbollah could still execute a limited invasion of northern Israel with 100-200 fighters, despite being unable to muster a full-scale invasion involving thousands of militants due to the loss of strategic surprise. He explained that as a quasi-army, Hezbollah can sustain significant casualties without crippling operational impacts.
The researcher estimated the Radwan force alone includes at least 2,500 fighters. More alarmingly, he believes Hezbollah has increased its stockpile of precise munitions from hundreds to thousands of projectiles, raising concerns over the potential use of chemical weapons in an extreme scenario.
Beeri's grim prognosis is that Hezbollah appears primed for war and would welcome conflict under any circumstances, whether a ceasefire emerges in the Gaza Strip or IDF ground operations expand into Rafah. Tensions have already escalated, with the group and allied groups conducting 1,637 attacks, including rocket barrages, anti-tank fire, and drone launches in the past seven months alone.
Ultimately, Beeri concluded no political agreement could prevent an eventual confrontation with Hezbollah, merely delaying the inevitability until at least 2026, if not sooner. This assessment may explain the group's recent rejection of a French proposal to remove its forces from the Israeli border region.
