With the final confirmation of the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, his senior deputy Mohammad Mohber has temporarily taken over but is only meant to remain in this role for up to 50 days. During this time, a special council consisting of Mohber, the Chief Justice, and the Speaker of Parliament (Majlis) is supposed to organize presidential elections.
Who will replace Raisi, a close contact whom Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei heavily relied upon? The potential candidates are familiar: Ali Larijani (66), a moderate politician who was formerly a parliament speaker but was disqualified from running in 2021; former President Hassan Rouhani (75), who is more moderate; the more hardline Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (66); and the conservative Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (63), former Tehran mayor and current parliament speaker.
The name of Mojtaba Khamenei (54), the second son of the Supreme Leader, has also been floated. In the past, Khamenei the son, a theologian by training, was the commander of the Basij forces and the man who pushed for Ahmadinejad's election, but the hardline president later accused him of corruption concerning billions of dollars. Over the past decade, Mojtaba's name has also been mentioned as someone who could one day replace his father in the highest position in the Islamic Republic.
However, it is still too early to identify leading candidates, clarifies Dr. Ori Goldberg, an Iran expert. "Politics in Iran is always a matter of coalitions," says Goldberg. "You need to watch who is forging alliances with whom. Perhaps there will even be attempts to push a certain individual to the forefront, while the real powerbroker wants to remain behind the scenes. This is how Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani operated in relation to Khamenei's own appointment."
According to Goldberg, Raisi's death is "a test of resilience for the system. The Leader (Ali Khamenei) has lost a man who bore no small responsibility and did not hide that he consulted him on everything. It is possible that he will now promote a technocrat, or perhaps even extend an olive branch to the Iranian public. No one will act now without listening to the public. The chances of him appointing someone radical at this point sound like a highly inappropriate move." This is also the reason why Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of being appointed are slim, Goldberg believes. "He is a symbol of corruption and does not have a shred of support. If Khamenei tries to appoint him, the opposition will take to the streets, and this time they will succeed."
