According to a Politico report, US intelligence indicates that despite months of Israeli offensives in Gaza, only 30% to 35% of Hamas fighters who were part of the group before the October 7 attack have been killed, leaving approximately 65% percent of the militant organization's pre-war fighters still intact.
The report cites a person familiar with US intelligence, who revealed that Hamas has been able to withstand the Israeli offensive by recruiting thousands of new fighters over the last several months. This intelligence assessment has fueled growing concerns within the Biden administration that Israel's strategy in Gaza is self-defeating and may ultimately pave the way for Hamas to regain control of the region.
"We want to encourage a deeper focus on the connection between the ongoing military operations and, ultimately, the strategic endgame," said a senior administration official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal discussions. "We're going to keep pressing on that point."
The report highlights the increasing frustration among US officials with Israel's refusal to change course, despite private warnings from Washington. Top officials have publicly criticized Israel for failing to protect civilians in Gaza and prevent Hamas from returning to areas once controlled by Israeli forces.
Biden administration officials have told the US outlet that they were worried Israel was not winning the long game. "The Biden administration fears Israel is disastrously squandering its opportunity for victory against Hamas, losing its best chance to eliminate the group's hold on Gaza and threat to the Israeli people," Politico reported.
The article cites retired US generals who warn that Israel's approach risks repeating mistakes made by the US in Iraq, where an insurgency grew out of a botched occupation. They argue that Israel has not deployed a large enough force to clear, capture, and hold dense urban areas in Gaza, leaving a vacuum for Hamas to re-establish its presence.
